New Listings mid-week May 13
A trickle of New Listings, but homes are still selling – read The number of Accepted Offers is increasing – as buyers and sellers make creative arrangements for viewing. Also read Why are more Sellers opting for Private Listings?
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings
A Calmer Mortgage Market
Recession and Recovery
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
The number of Accepted Offers is increasing
While still running well below the levels of last year (see chart below), the number of Accepted Offers (AO) for SFHs received in Essex County in the latest week shows increasing activity. In fact the number of AOs (with the probability that a few more will be reported tomorrow) last week was close to the number back in March when active\ivity was strong.
This is the chart I post each week showing the Year-on-Year increase compared with 2019. Note that Holy Week was week 14 in 2020 and week 16 in 2019:
And this is the percentage change compared with the same week in 2019.
Ignoring the spike in week 16 as a result of the timing of Holy Week, the improving trend is clear as the percentage decline has slowed from around 50% to just over 30%.
Comment
The real estate industry – professionals involved in transactions, as well as buyer and sellers – has adapted to the COVID-19 world. Buyers are out there and inventory remains low. Also, bear in mind that some sellers are requesting that their properties are not listed in MLS, so if you are checking on Zillow you might not be seeing all that is available.: you need to speak to a real estate agent.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Coronavirus-era homework station
The Boston Globe has published this coronavirus-era homework station guide.
I suspect that while most of us would vote for this location:
This one may be more realistic:
Have you created a homework nook or special location for your “school?”
I suspect two trends will emerge from this pandemic: more people, especially those with children, deciding to move out of Boston and to towns with space (and ocean!); and a move away from the open-plan trend of recent years as more private work spaces for more people are needed.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
New Listings mid-week May 6
A trickle of New Listings, but homes are still selling – read Accepted Offers are plateauing – as buyers and sellers make creative arrangements for viewing. Also read Why are more Sellers opting for Private Listings?
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings
A Calmer Mortgage Market
Recession and Recovery
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Why are more Sellers opting for Private Listings ?
The Boston Globe points out in Pandemic has more sellers opting for private listings:
“As the novel coronavirus continues its deadly spread, some sellers are understandably skittish about letting a parade of potential buyers traipse through their homes day after day. That’s leading some sellers to consider a more discreet sales strategy usually reserved for public figures or the very wealthy: the private listing.”
Matt Dolan, a broker with Team Harborside at Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International in Marblehead, has used private listings to keep sales quiet for couples going through a divorce or politicians, but he also represents a seller with an extensive antiques collection who doesn’t want to publicly disclose the address of his treasure trove and worries about browsers pocketing a priceless rarity. So Dolan is instructed to mention the home only to vetted clients. “I’m not allowed to market it, but if someone is looking for this type of property, I’m allowed to tell people about it,’’ he said.
Dolan prefers to list a home on the MLS whenever possible to take advantage of its reach, while relying on video tours and a verification process to “control the flow’’ of buyers. His team adheres to similarly strict safety protocols for in-person showings, and now requires “a fresh preapproval’’ before an on-site viewing. “Just because you were approved a month ago,’’ he said, “that’s not necessarily good enough, because mortgage guidelines are changing quickly.”
For more information read Guide to Buying or Selling a Home During a Pandemic.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Escape to Hawaii….
Are you zoom-ed out? Are you still wondering how to get that exotic background that everybody else seems to have?
Time to take a break and dream of Hawaii!
For a mere $27.5 million (actually only $27,480,000) you can buy this Hawaiian beachfront home .
The ever shrinking Housing Inventory
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. The decline then resumed, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2017. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing until June).
Happy 100th Capt… make that Col. Tom
The continuing triumphant and uplifting story continues on his 100th birthday:
Nano tiny house for $40,000
This Nano house with a living room, kitchen, bathroom, and bedroom, also has four seasons-approved heated floors, an insulated interior, and wooden exterior walls that have been sustainability altered for increased longevity.
Click photos to see more.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
New Listings mid-week April 29
A trickle of New Listings, but homes are still selling – read Accepted Offers are picking up– as buyers and sellers make creative arrangements for viewing:
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings
A Calmer Mortgage Market
Recession and Recovery
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
99-year old Captain Tom reaches no 1 in UK charts
In my Why I ignore economic forecasts last week I said: “Listening to negative news can have a negative effect psychologically. Better to to focus on some positive news. Here’s one example: 99-year old Capt. Tom Moore who set out to raise GBP1,000 for the National health Service by walking 100 laps of his garden before his 100th birthday on April 30th. At the last count he has raised GBP 23 MILLION!”
Well this week Capt. Tom has gone one better, reaching number 1 in the charts with his recording of “You’ll Never Walk Alone” as reported in this BBC article: Captain Tom tops charts. And he will still be Number 1 on his 100th birthday on April 30!
Capt. Tom’s story is but one of the many, many examples of ordinary people acting heroically during COVID-19.
Andrew Oliver
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
New Listings as of Earth Day
A much smaller number of New Listings than would be normal at this time of year, but homes are still selling – 4 SFHs in Marblehead have received offers already this week – as buyers and sellers make creative arrangements for viewing:
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings
Accepted Offers see small Uptick
A Calmer Mortgage Market
Recession and Recovery
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Accepted Offers see small Uptick
The number of of properties receiving Accepted Offers – the best indicator of current market activity – has shown a modest increase since the low recorded in the week ending April 3.
This chart compares the number of SFHs receiving accepted offers week by week in 2019 and 2020 in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County (I have used Essex County to get a large enough sample to be significant.)
For the first 9 weeks of the year – through March 6, 2020 (March 8, 2019) – the number of accepted offers was slightly ahead: averaging 91 vs 87 in 2019.
The number of accepted offers then started to drop: by 18, 23, 27, 71, 88 and this past week by 74. But the actual number of Accepted Offers has seen a small increase from 68 to 79 and 82 in the last two weeks.
The curve is flattening
We have learned to be on the lookout for the flattening of the curve with COVID_19 so let’s apply the same technique to the housing market. This chart shows the percentage change each week compared with 2019:
This is the change in the last few weeks:
Outlook
April traditionally sees an uptick in market activity – the “spring market”. In 2019, the weekly average – even allowing for the drop in Holy Week – in the four full weeks of April was 146 accepted offers.
Adding to the economic uncertainty is the challenge of viewing properties, but we are rapidly developing a new norm for the process as buyers and sellers adapt.
It seems likely that the number of accepted offers will continue to trail below last year’s levels, but properties are still selling. It will be instructive to see if the level of activity picks up as cash from the many stimulus programs starts to arrive.
While activity will drop, it is not clear what the impact will be on prices. I suspect that will be a case-by-case situation depending upon the specific circumstances of sellers. Essex County is largely a first home – meaning primary residence – market. Contrast that with Naples, Florida – a second or vacation home market, where 65% of properties which went under agreement in the last 3 weeks have come back on to the market.
As with the economy at large, the housing market entered this shutdown from a position of strength: a chronic shortage of supply and low mortgage rates. The best outcome might be a resetting of the supply/demand imbalance creating a more stable market.
A Calmer Mortgage Market
Recession and Recovery
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Why I ignore economic forecasts
Almost daily, it seems, we get another batch of dismal economic statistics and equally dismal forecasts. But all forecasts are meaningless because nobody knows how long the shut-downs will last around the world, how quickly economies will resume and what the “new normal” will look like.
Will the recovery be V-shaped, U-shaped, L-shaped or, for that matter, pear-shaped?
We do not know. So even though I have a degree in economics, spent my career on Wall Street and am a statistician, I ignore all these numbers.
Listening to negative news can have a negative effect psychologically. Better to to focus on some positive news. Here’s one example: 99-year old Capt. Tom Moore who set out to raise GBP1,000 for the National health Service by walking 100 laps of his garden before his 100th birthday on April 30th. At the last count he has raised GBP 23 MILLION!
There are many similar stories all round the world, examples of the determination and goodwill of many, many people, the spirit that gets us through wars and catastrophes.
One real estate comment. Over the last say 20 years there has been a trend towards people wanting to live in big cities and also to live in open plan homes. Going forward, big cities will be seen to be less attractive, especially for those with families, and open plan homes less conducive to multiple family members needing work spaces.
Andrew Oliver
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Sotheby’s to auction ultimate Porsche to benefit COVID-19 Fund
This spectacular Speedster is set to be auctioned in a special one-week, online-only auction to benefit United Way Worldwide’s COVID-19 Community Response and Recovery Fund. The auction’s consigner is none other than Porsche Cars North America, supported by RM Sotheby’s
Built in a run of 1,948 to reflect the year that the first Porsche 356 “No. 1” roadster was registered in Carinthia, Austria, this 2019 Porsche 911 Speedster “Heritage Design” is the last 991-series 911 chassis ever built, and it represents seven decades of continuous refinement and dedication on the part of Porsche’s engineers.
Not simply an auction for a unique Speedster, Porsche has included several one-of-a-kind accessories to increase interest in the sale. The winning bidder will also be invited behind-the-scenes at the Porsche AG development facilities in Weissach, and have an opportunity to spend time lapping the test track outside the Development Center
Read the full details by clicking Auction
Andrew Oliver
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Recent Comments