Marblehead Oceanfront Open Houses today
All that Marblehead oceanfront living offers can be seen today.
First Open House 11:30 -1:00 at 46 Gallison Avenue
Second up, from 1:30-2:30 is 11 Crown Way. Note that the carriage house and main house may be available separately.
Are you looking to buy? With so little inventory you need an agent working on your behalf. Contact me for details of my buyer agent program.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
Open Houses Sunday February 26
It may not be quite as spring-like today but it will still be sunny and in the 40s, fine weather to find your dream home:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Are you looking to buy? With so little inventory you need an agent working on your behalf. Contact me for details of my buyer agent program.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Where have all the sellers gone?
Where have all the sellers gone
Long time no see
Where have all the sellers gone
Gone gone away
Are you waiting for spring to come
I have to tell you it is here
Now is the time to sell
Now is the time to sell
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Lies, damned lies and statistics*: mortgage rates
Sometime I scratch my read when I read pronouncements from “experts”. Take this comment from Sean Becketti, chief economist at Freddie Mac:
“In a short week following Presidents Day, the 10-year Treasury yield fell about 8 basis points. However, the 30-year mortgage rate rose 1 basis point to 4.16 percent. This week’s survey once again displays the disconnect between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, a result of continued uncertainty.”
The Freddie Mac weekly survey data is collected from Monday through Wednesday and the results are released on Thursdays at 10 a.m. ET. This week, of course, markets were closed on Monday so there was very little data on which to base the week’s calculations.
More importantly, the yield on the 30 year Fixed rate Mortgage (FRM) does track the yield on the 10 year Treasury note (10T) closely. It does not move directly in line because US Treasuries have been regarded as the “safe haven” for investors in times of uncertainty. Last summer, for example, the UK vote to leave the EU triggered buying of US Treasuries, causing their yields to drop. Mortgage rates did not fall as far, because the fall in Treasury yields was unrelated to the demand for mortgages.
Anyway, let’s get back to Mr. Becketti’s assertion that there is a “disconnect between mortgage rates and Treasury yields”. Look at this table, which shows the spread – the extra yield investors in mortgage backed securities demand over the yield on 10T. The first four numbers are the average for the entire year:
I’d say there is a pretty clear connect between mortgage rates and Treasury yields. The spread was a little wider in 2016 because of events like Brexit, but even with the spike in Treasury yields since the election the spread has remained in a narrow band.
What will drive Treasury yields this year ?
For the last several years the only economic policy, in the absence of any fiscal policy from Congress, has been monetary policy – i.e. keeping interest rates low to try to stimulate the economy. Yields on US Treasuries have spiked since the election for two main reasons: the expectation that a Republican Congress and Administration will pass legislation to foster faster economic growth, which in turn will lead to higher inflation. As a result interest rates will rise.
The yield on 10T increased from 1.75% before the election to as high as 2.6%, before dropping back to 2.3%. A disconnect seems to be emerging between Administration Twitter pronouncements and action and policy by Congress and Department leaders. And it does seem that actions on the economy are going to take second fiddle to action on the Affordable Care Act. While the Treasury Secretary this week said he wanted to try to pass tax reform by August he admitted that that timetable was aggressive and there would not be an impact until 2018.
If you are thinking of buying or selling a home this year and want to avoid surprises when it comes to your mortgage rate, the one number to focus on is the yield on the 10 year Treasury. Mortgage rates will vary from lender to lender, while the rate can be reduced by paying more upfront in terms of points. But I keep a mental picture of base mortgage rates by looking at the yield on 10T and adding 1.7%.
*”There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” The actual origin of this expression is disputed but it was attributed by Mark Twain to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. This article is one of an occasional series I write about what I deem to be false statistical claims.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
New Listings week of February 24
Spring was in the air this week but new listings are still very low. Read Where have all the sellers gone?
Marblehead new listings
Swampscott new listing
Salem new listings
Beverly new listings
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Which town has the highest median property price?
It probably comes as no surprise that the highest median home price in 2016 in Essex County was in Manchester By The Sea, but there was a big gap until the next highest. Again demonstrating the power of larger numbers (read Essex County town by town prices) 22 of the 34 cities and towns enjoyed a median price above the median for the County, while all but 6 exceeded the State median price. And while Marblehead was edged out of the silver medal spot by Lynnfield it did boast the most Million Dollar Sales: (more…)
Town by Town guide to home prices in Essex County
This reports shows the median price of Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in each of the 34 cities and towns of Essex County, followed by a column showing the peak price recorded for each town. At the far right are sales for each of the last two years. (more…)
Marblehead: Open Houses in Goldthwait today
There are three Open Houses today in the sought after Goldthwait area of Marblehead: two new construction and one house sitting directly on Goldthwait Beach.
Click Goldthwait houses for details of all three houses (note 46 Gallison is listed by Harborside Sotheby’s and 4 Gallison and 210 Atantic by William Raveis).
All 3 are open from 11:30-1:00. Here’s a link to the website and video for 46 Gallison Avenue and here’s sunrise from the house:
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house? (more…)
Open Houses Sunday February 19
The sun is up
The sky is blue
It’s going to be 50 today
These Open Houses are a must for you*
Gloucester 2016 Housing Market By The Numbers
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median prices of a SFH sold in Gloucester in 2016 increased by 2.6% to $400,000, almost back to the 2006 peak of $402,500. Prices have increased steadily, but modestly, over the last few years. Sales have also been on an upward trend and reached a new peak in 2016: (more…)
Town of Essex 2016 Housing Market By The Numbers
Single Family Homes (SFH)
While sales in the town of Essex set a new record in 2016, the third year that they exceeded 40 units, the overall number was still quite small.
In a market with a small number of sales and a wide range in types of property – from seasonal summer cottages to waterfront farms – the median price can fluctuate quite widely depending upon the mix of sales in any year. For example, sales over $500,000 jumped from 7 in 2003 to 22 in 2005 before dropping to just 4 and 6 in 2009 and 2010.; and the number dropped again in 2016 to 19 from 24 in 2015. Overall, the median price has fluctuated around the $500,000 mark in recent years. (more…)
New Listings week of February 17
Seven weeks into 2017 and new listings remain at a trickle:
Marblehead new listings
Swampscott new listings
Salem new listings
Beverly new listings
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
You’ve decided to sell your house. The big question is: which broker should you hire to sell it? And how do you make that decision? I find that possibly the least understood aspect of home buying and selling is the mechanism by which a house is actually sold.
Who actually produces the buyers for houses?
The table below shows the percentage of a firm’s or office’s listings that are sold by an agent in that office: NOT the percentage sold by the individual listing the property, but the percentage sold by any other agent in the same office or firm.
The numbers are for 2016 for 4 local towns plus Essex County and whole of Massachusetts , for the top 10 offices or firms in each market (the top 6 in Marblehead). Offices, the first table, means each individual office: so firm A may have several offices in the region but this number is for each individual office. The second table is for all a firm’s offices in the region.
One of my jobs is to look at statistics and decide if they are significant or not. What strikes me about the numbers in this table is their consistency: both individual offices and firms sell roughly 1 in 4 of the houses they list for sale. Which means that some 3 out of every 4 houses are sold, not only not by the individual listing agent, but not by any of the other 20 or 30 or however many agents in her firm!
Does market share matter?
Not obviously. Each city or town has its combination of chains and local brokers. The bigger the area surveyed – as in Essex County – naturally the larger the market share of the firms with multiple offices will be. But the increase in the percentage of listings sold is very modest. As a numbers man I would have to say that I see no evidence that market share is a determining factor in who actually finds the buyer of a house for sale.
So how should you decide who should sell your house?
I was shocked when I first came across these numbers while preparing a presentation to a potential seller. They made me rethink the reasons for choosing a broker. My belief now is that, while there are several factors that go into the decision, the most important factors are the ability to develop a strategic partnership between the seller and the listing broker, the marketing plan presented by that broker, price and presentation.
What should be in the marketing plan?
Putting the listing in MLS and holding Open Houses is not a marketing plan. It is the old way of doing business.
Today, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), over 90% of buyers use the internet in some way during their search and more than 50% use a mobile website or app. Where appropriate, you should expect your broker to have an online presence (including a website exclusively for your home), and a plan for using social media advertising.
Photographs matter! The days of a broker showing up with his own camera, and snapping photos with the lights off or curtains drawn are long gone. You need professional high-resolution photos. At Harborside Sotheby’s our photos have to go through Sotheby’s quality control department.
Other things to look for include floor plans (which can be interactive with photos embedded), a video, which can be narrated, and a professionally produced glossy brochure.
All these things, of course, cost money, but remember that the listing agent is normally getting a commission of 2 1/2% of the sale price. Shouldn’t she be willing to spend a reasonable amount on marketing your house professionally and thoroughly?
My friend from church/synagogue/yacht club/ yoga is a broker: I feel I ought to give her the listing
Ah, the “ought to’s”. How much of our life is driven by ought to’s?
This is often the hardest issue for a seller to face. According to the NAR, 72% of sellers contacted only one broker before listing their home. One solution is to say to that friend: “I would like you to make a presentation to me to sell my home. Just to let you know, my financial advisor/accountant/spouse has recommended that I get presentations from 3 brokers so I am doing that.”
You may still select your friend, but you will have an out if you decide to choose somebody else. And trust me, every agent has stories of listings they expected to get but didn’t. That’s the nature of a business where there are so many agents. And if you do list with your friend, you will know that you are doing so for business as well as personal reasons.
Who should be targeted by the marketing plan?
The ultimate buyer of the house, right? Well yes, but at least as important, if not more so, are agents of other firms, because they are the most likely source of the buyer for your house. You should ask the agents you interview about their plans for marketing your house to agents of other firms.
Should I list with the broker who suggests the highest price?
It is human nature to want to believe that your house is worth the highest possible price, so it is very tempting to go with the agent who quotes the highest price. And it is not unknown for that one buyer to come along and pay that price. But the chances are greater that a high price will put off buyers.
If other agents think the price is too high they are less likely to call their buyers to go and look at the house.
You are the customer
Most of us when we are considering a significant purchase do some reasonably thorough research of the product and alternatives. We might look at several different cars or TVs, read online reviews (from a trusted source such as Consumer Reports), ask friends – and then make an informed decision. Yet 72% of us do not apparently follow the same approach when it comes to selling what is for most of us our biggest asset.
The number one goal of Oliver Reports is to make you an informed buyer or seller of real estate. I hope this article helps you to make an informed decision when you decide to sell your house.
And if you would like me to be one of the 3 brokers you ask to discuss the sale of your home I should be delighted to meet with you.
Here are examples of the way I have presented homes to the market:
46 Gallison Avenue
59 Washington Street
11 Crown Way
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com. for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Marblehead Beach House High Tide Open House
People who live on the ocean know that the best times are during storms when they can enjoy the drama of the raging sea. High tide in Marblehead is around noon today, so that will be a great time (12:00-1:30) to go to the Open House at 46 Gallison Avenue, which sits directly on Goldthwait Beach with views and views and views….
Which town has the most Million Dollar Sales?
30 of Essex County’s 34 cities and towns have recorded a sale of $1 million or more since 2000 – the exceptions are Lawrence, Lynn, Methuen and Peabody. Three towns – Marblehead,Andover and Manchester – account for 40% of all sales. (more…)











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