Recession: what Recession?

The August jobs report published yesterday showed that the labour market remained red-hot in July despite expectations job growth would cool as tighter monetary conditions and company layoffs stoked fears of a recession.

Here were the key numbers from the report, compared to economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Non-farm payrolls: +528,000 vs. +250,000

Unemployment rate: 3.5% vs. 3.6%

Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.5% vs. +0.4%

Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +5.2% vs. +4.9%

Last week I published Recession? Yes, no, maybe…. . The US has seen two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months,” is the usual criterion for declaring arecession.

And the latest employment numbers clearly do not meet that definition.

The problem
While the White House and Wall Street may cheer the strong economic numbers, they only make the Federal Reserve’s job more difficult as it belatedly tries to slow the economy. Thus after the announcemment on Friday, the odds increased that we will get further large rate increases from the Fed in September and later.

And these recent articles:
Economic and mortgage commentary
No, the Federal Reserve does not control mortgage rates
Recession? Yes, no, maybe….
Federal Reserve tries to rewrite history
Has Inflation Peaked?
Have Mortgage Rates peaked?
Are we already in a Recession?
Federal Reserve in Fantasyland: Implications for Housing Market
Time to Consider an Adjustable Rate Mortgage
How Marblehead’s 2022 Property Tax Rate is calculated
Essex County 2022 Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide

Market Reports
Essex County Mid-Year Market Summary in 5 slides
Massachusetts Mid-Year Market Summary in 5 slides
How quickly are houses selling?
Have Home Sales slowed?
June Housing Inventory: still way below 2020 levels.

Other
Free Property and Mortgage Fraud alert notification for homeowners
Guide to Buying and Selling in Southwest Florida

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].

Andrew Oliver, M.B.E.,M.B.A.
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReportsMA.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
__________________

Andrew Oliver, M.B.E., M.B.A.
Real Estate Advisor
[email protected]
www.TheFeinsGroup.com
www.OliverReportsFL.com

————
Compass
800 Laurel Oak Drive, Suite 400, Naples, FL 34108
m: 617.834.8205