Housing Inventory little changed in July
Housing inventory for the 34 cities and towns of Essex County in pictures. Note that not only are numbers low but that there was no pick-up in the spring/summer market:
Single Family Homes

Condos (more…)
May Housing Inventory: massive decline continues
Housing inventory for the 34 cities and towns of Essex County in pictures:
Single Family Homes


Condos


Mortgage rates
After moving up for several weeks the 30-year Fixed rate Mortgage has dropped blow 3% again. Note how cheap 15-year mortgages are for those who can afford the extra payment.
(Freddie Mac weekly survey)
Comment (more…)
Essex County Housing Market Q1 2021 Review
- The median price of Single-Family Homes (SFH) sold in Q1 2021increased 11% to $550,000 from Q1 2020, but was in line with the $555,000 in the second half of the year 2020.
- Every one of the 34 cities and towns in Essex County saw Year-on-Year (YOY) increases in the median selling price; only 6 of the 34 cities and towns recorded a median SFH price under $500,000, while 3 saw that figure exceed $1 million.
- Numbers in any Q, especially Q1, need to be treated with caution: some of the largest apparent increases in median prices occurred on a small number of sales.
- The Condo median sales price increased 9.9% to $365,000. In Boston, the median price was very similar to the levels of the last 3 years, during which time the Essex County Condo median price has increased some 20%.

For a more detailed report on the market in Q1 go to Team Harborside’s website and read: Essex County Q1 Market Review (more…)
New Listings mid-week April 14
A modest number of New Listings this week:
>
Click on these links for details: (more…)
2020 Market Reports: Town by Town Reviews
Market Reports for all 34 cities and towns in Essex County are now available on the website.
This is the link to that page: 2020 Market Reports by Town (more…)
2020: The Top End comes Roaring Back
One of the surprise of the last 2-3 years – to me at least – has been that there has not been more activity in the top end of the market, even as activity increased at lower levels. But that changed in 2020.
Let’s look at sales by price point:
The number of sales over $1 million increased 39% from 353 to 489:

The number of sales over $2 million increased to 60 compared with the prior high of 51

Sales over $3 million doubled from 10 in 2019 to 21 in 2021, passing the prior peak of 18 in 2007:

And there was a rebound in sales over $4 million to 12, also passing the prior 2007 peak of 11.

These charts support what one would normally expect in a rising market – an increase in top-end sales. It took a COVID-inspired exodus from cities to achieve it on this occasion.
Mortgage Rates are Rising
How Marblehead’s 2021 Property Tax Rate is Calculated
Essex County 2021 Residential Property Tax Rates: a Town by Town guide
Conforming Mortgage Loan Limits raised for 2021
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®
Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com
www.MarbleheadSouth.com
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Essex County Housing Market 2020 Review
The median Single Family Home (SFH) price increased 8.9% in H1 and then by 14.4% in H2, breaking decisively through the $500,000 level.

Every one of the 34 cities and towns in Essex County say Year-over-Year price increases, while only 8 now have a median price below $500,000.
For a more detailed report go to Team Harborside’s website: Essex County Review (more…)
Essex County 2021 Commercial Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide
While most of us look at residential tax rates, fewer are concerned with commercial tax rates. Yet a healthy commercial business environment can contribute significantly to the attractiveness of a town. The map below shows commercial rates in each of Essex County’s 34 cities and towns, followed by a table comparing residential and commercial rates.
(Click here to download a copy of this map and here to download the table)



There is a bigger variation in commercial rates than in residential rates
The lowest rate for both residential and commercial rates is Rockport’s $9.74, but while the highest residential rate is Wenham’s $19.68, there are 11 towns with commercial rates over $20, with the highest being $28.09 in Andover. 20 towns set the same rate for both residential and commercial, while in 4 towns the commercial rate is twice or more times the residential one.
Why do some towns have different residential and commercial tax rates?
Cities and towns have the ability to increase the percentage of the total tax bill paid by commercial (and industrial and personal) property owners. The percentage of the value of property classified as commercial varies enormously from town to town.
In Marblehead, for example, where residential property is 95% of the total, a 50% tax shift to commercial would increase the median commercial tax bill from $7,322 to $10,979, while reducing the median residential tax bill by only $190.
Towns with a higher percentage of commercial property are more likely to shift an increased share of the tax bill to commercial owners.
Essex County 2021 Residential Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Licensed Sales Agent in Florida
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Essex County Housing Inventory: how low can you go?
A picture is worth a thousand words:


Comment
The market in recent months has been characterised by the twin challenges of reduced inventory and increased demand, with buyers from Boston and beyond adding to local demand; and both aided by record low mortgage rates.
We are back to the most basic economic equation: when demand exceeds supply, prices rise. In housing, that often results in bidding wars, as we are seeing frequently now.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Essex County 2021 Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide
How Marblehead’s 2021 Property Tax Rate is Calculated
Are you thinking of moving to Southwest Florida?
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Licensed Sales Agent in Florida
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Essex County 2021 Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide
Property tax rates for FY 2021 for all 34 cities and towns in Essex County have been certified. Below is a map, so that you can compare tax rates in neighboring towns, followed by the tax rates for each town the last 5 years. The first table shows the tax rates in alphabetical order, while the second lists them from low to high.

Tax rates for each town
Alphabetically (download a copy of this table by clicking here.


From lowest to highest based on 2021 rates (download a copy of this table by clicking here)


Median and Average Tax Rates
The median tax rate for FY2021 is $13.40, down from $13.68 in FY2020, while the average tax rate is unchanged at $13.80. The highest taxed town, Wenham, has a rate 47% higher than the County median, while the lowest, Rockport, is 27% below the median. Or put another way, the highest tax rate in Essex County is double that of the lowest.
How property tax rates are calculated
There are two main points to understand:
The dollar amount raised by property taxes is based on a simple formula: the dollar levy for the previous year plus 2 1/2% (Prop 2 1/2), plus any new growth (e.g. new construction), plus debt service.
The tax rate is then calculated by dividing the dollar amount to be raised by the Assessed Value of all property. For FY 2021 (July 2020-June 2021) Assessed Values are based upon sales during 2019. Sales in 2020 will be used for calculating the FY 2022 tax rates.
20 of Essex County’s cities and towns choose a single tax rate, whereby residential and commercial properties are taxed at the same rate. The other 14 cities and towns choose a split tax rate whereby commercial properties are taxed at a higher rate – in some cases a much higher rate.
A separate report on commercial tax rates will be published in the near future.
For a walk through the tax calculation of a single rate tax town read How Marblehead’s 2021 Tax Rate is calculated
Tax rate changes in 2021
Of the 34 cities and towns in Essex County, 19 have announced decreases in their FY2021 residential tax rate while 14 have had increases approved and one is unchanged.. Decreases of 5% or more were seen in Manchester and Ipswich, while 5% or larger increases were recorded in Merrimac and Amesbury. Bear in mind that a major determinant of the change in tax rates is the movement in Assessed Values. Thus, in a time of rising home prices, a general expectation is that tax rates should be flat to down.
Tax Rates of Neighboring Towns
Where taxes become interesting is when one can compare tax rates in neighboring towns. Many people, especially those moving to the area, whether from Boston or elsewhere, are willing to consider more than one town.There are many factors in the decision about where to live, but tax rates can be a significant influence on the decision, and have become more so with the limitation on the deduction of property taxes from Federal taxation. Some argue that lower property values offset higher taxes. Frequently, however, residents of highly taxed towns cite property taxes as a reason for wanting to move.
Commercial Property Tax Rates:a Town by Town guide
Mortgage Markets Return to Normal
Conforming Mortgage Loan Limits raised for 2021
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Licensed Sales Agent in Florida
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Essex County housing inventory plunges even further
Single Family Homes
After years of decline, the number of SFHs for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. The decline then resumed, and has accelerated throughout 2020:
Market still active while inventory remains low
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) in Essex County receiving offers recovered strongly from May onwards, and for the last several months has been ahead of 2019. YTD numbers are now slightly ahead of 2019 levels. The numbers would have been even stronger in recent months but for the chronic shortage of supply.

Single Family Homes
After years of decline, the number of SFHs for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. The decline then resumed, and has accelerated in 2020:

The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2018. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year).

The second chart shows the decline YOY each month since July 2019 (note the decline both from 2018 to 2019 and again, much sharper, from 2019 to 2020).

Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline which has accelerated somewhat in 2020:

These two charts show numbers since 2018 for January to June, and July to December.
The first chart shows the decline in 2020 YOY, while in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year.

The second chart shows inventory has been declining since October 2019, with the rate of decline accelerating in 2020..

Supply
While the overall inventory of 1 month of supply remains well below the 6 months traditionally regarded as representing a market in equilibrium. While supply as usual becomes freer the higher the price bracket, it is notable that it does not exceed the traditional gauge of a market in equilibrium – 6 months of supply – until prices reach $2 million.

Comment
The market in recent months has been characterised by the twin challenges of reduced inventory and increased demand, with buyers from Boston adding to local demand; and both aided by record low mortgage rates.
We are back to the most basic economic equation: when demand exceeds supply, prices rise. In housing, that often results in bidding wars, as we are seeing frequently now.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics: Q3 GDP growth
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County Q3 2020 Housing Market Report
[Click here to download a copy of this report]Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of SFHs sold in the first 9 months of 2020 (YTD Q3) jumped 11.8% to $532,500, comfortable breaking through the $500,000 level for the first time. Every one of the 34 cities and towns saw a Year on Year increase. Most of the sales decline occurred in the COVID-19 impacted Q2. The median Days to Offer (DTO) was just 10 days. (more…)



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