Will house prices continue to rise in 2020?
Many years ago, during my investment banking career, I hired a young analyst to write a report on a very successful company, which had grown earnings for 12 years in a row. This analyst wanted to downgrade the shares because: “they have been growing for 12 years and cannot continue to grow.”
Needless to say (I hope) I changed the conclusion on the report.
Why is that relevant to the housing market outlook for 2020? The market has seen annual increases since 2010, so it has risen for the last 9 years. So it can’t continue, right?
Well, why not?
I have often written about the law of supply and demand.
According to the National Association of realtors (NAR): “Total housing inventory at the end of December totaled 1.40 million units, down 14.6% from November and 8.5% from one year ago (1.53 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from the 3.7-month figure recorded in both November and December 2018. Unsold inventory totals have dropped for seven consecutive months from year-ago levels, taking a toll on home sales.”
Meanwhile: the median existing-home price for all housing types in December was up 7.8% from December 2018, as prices rose in every region. November’s price increase marks 94 straight months of year-over-year gains. “Price appreciation has rapidly accelerated, and areas that are relatively unaffordable or declining in affordability are starting to experience slower job growth,” Yun said. “The hope is for price appreciation to slow in line with wage growth, which is about 3%.”
In Essex County, the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale, after declining for several years, increased Year-on-Year from August 2018 to June 2019. But since then inventory has declined and that declined has accelerated:
And the supply makes availability nationally seem like an abundance:
Recently, one of my sons was badly injured in a fall while hiking in Nepal. My younger son flew out to be with him. Each day we got medical updates which were full of information. My younger son would ask what his condition was and was told still critical. “That’s all that matters,” he said, “the rest is just noise.”
At the end of 2018 in an article entitled Is a recession coming soon? I concluded by saying this:
“At the moment it (consumer confidence) is intact. As long as that remains so the likelihood for 2019 is a slowing, but still growing, economy and a stable housing market.”
And earlier: “While the increase in the Fed Funds rate has been getting a lot of publicity very recently, the Fed has actually been raising rates – and indicating that it planned to continue to do so – for 3 years, with the first increase coming in December 2015.It could be argued that the more rapid increase in rates this year has been in response to the major stimulus from the tax cuts earlier in the year. It could further be argued that, on the evidence so far, the Fed has been successful in helping to slow growth to a sustainable level, thereby curbing inflationary pressures which would necessitate even higher interest rates.”
There has been a lot of noise over the last year. A lot. But the economy remains strong: not super strong but chugging along quite nicely. With low unemployment, low mortgage rates and low inventory, the law of supply and demand will continue to apply and suggest that house prices, which grew faster than I had expected in the second half of 2019 as supply dwindled again, will continue on the upward path of the last 9 years.
Read Are You Thinking of Selling in 2020?
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.OliverReports.com
www.andrewJoliver.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Can a 97-Year-Old Still Get a 30-Year Mortgage?
Older Americans may not realize that they can still qualify for a mortgage, as the Equal Credit Opportunity Act forbids discrimination in the mortgage market on the basis of age. According to this NAR article 97-year-olds older borrowers are eligible to get loans that will expire even up to their 130th birthdays.
According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, borrowers over the age of 65 comprise about 10% of all mortgages that are originated each year, and
more lenders are trying to promote to retirees that they can still qualify with special lending programs geared to them.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Lynn 2019 Housing Market Summary
[Click here to download a PDF of this report.]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median SFH price increased 9.2% to $385,000 in 2019, up from $352,500 in 2018, and up almost 30% since first reaching $300,000 in 2016.
Condos
The median sales price increased 12.4% to $281,000 from $249,900 in 2018, taking the gain to 44% since 2016.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Are You Thinking of Selling in 2020?
If you are thinking of selling in 2020 these are some of the questions you should be asking:
What is a realistic expectation of the price I will get?
How long will it take to sell my house?
What is the best marketing plan to get maximum exposure for my house?
Team Harborside of Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty is one of the top performing real estate groups North of Boston. Since 2009, Team Harborside has represented buyers, sellers, and investors, in transactions totaling over $350,000,000.
Contact me to arrange a meeting to discuss how Team Harborside can help you achieve your goals in 2020.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County 2019 median home prices: a Town by Town guide
[Click here to download the table listing towns in alphabetical order, and here to download the table showing towns from highest to lowest median price.]
Overall, in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County, the median Single Family Home (SFH) price increased 3.9% to $475,000 in 2019, while sales were up 2.7%. Both were new record highs.
The table below shows the median price for each town for the last 3 years, with the percentage change in 2019. It also compares sales for the last two years.
Note that a small number of sales can lead to price fluctuations. In general, the larger the number of sales, the more reliable is the median price.
While the overall median price in Essex County was $475,000, only 12 of the 34 cities and towns had median prices below this level, while 22 had median prices above $475,000. The reason for this is that the median price for the the County is calculated by taking all 6,000 plus individual property sales, and many of the towns with a large number of sales are in communities with lower prices.
Calculating the median price for Essex County using towns – i.e. the median price of 34 numbers – rather than individual sales produces a median price of $584,500.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County 2019 Housing Market Summary
[Click here to download a PDF of this report.]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County in 2019 increased 3.9% to a new record $475,000. The pace of gain increased in H2. Sales increased 2.7%, just reaching a new high.
Condos
The median price of Condos/Townhomes sold in 2019 increased 6.7%, to $320,000. Sales increased 1.8%.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Top 5 Dos and Don’ts for Staging a Home
Tips from HGTV’s The Stagers
Top 5 Dos

Top 5 Don’ts.

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
How is Swampscott’s 2020 Property Tax rate calculated?
Swampscott’ residential tax rate will drop from $15.20 in Fiscal Year 2019 to $14.30 in FY 2020 (and down from a high of $18.84 in FY 2013). The FY 2020 rate will be the lowest since 2008.
Commercial and industrial property is surcharged at 170%, as in FY 2019, resulting in a tax rate of $27.45, down from $28.83 in FY 2018 (and a high of $35.02 in FY 2013).
The average SFH tax bill has been flat in recent years, while the average commercial tax bill has increased:
Were a single tax rate to be enacted – meaning that residential and commercial property were taxed at the same rate – that rate would be $15.10 for FY 2020. The average SFH and condo tax bills would increase by 5.6% while the average commercial bill would drop 41.2%.
How is the rate calculated?
The method of calculating the tax rate is quite simple: take the $ amount of the previous year’s tax levy, add 2.5% for Proposition 2 1/2, and also add any new growth (such as new construction or a condo conversion). This figure is the new maximum tax levy. To this figure is added debt service – the Principal and Interest payable on the town’s debt.
Note that in recent years, Swampscott has not assessed the maximum allowed under this formula, a decision that has reduced the tax bill for residents. The average tax bill will decline by $23 in FY 2020, a third consecutive year of decline.
Here are the numbers for FY 2018, 2018 and 2020, remembering that the FY runs from July to June.
The Tax Levy calculation
The maximum $ amount that can be raised by the property tax will increase year by year. That is because of the formula: last year’s number plus 2.5% (Prop 2 1/2) plus new growth. In the table above you can see how the FY 2019 maximum tax levy of $50,034,670 becomes the base for FY 2020. Add $1,250,867 for Prop 2 1/2 and new growth of $425,000 to get the new figure of $51,710,537.
To this number is added the debt service – Principal and Interest on the town’s debt, much as homeowners pay P&I on their mortgage. Note that the actual tax levy was less than the maximum allowed by just over $2 million in FY 2018, by $3.4 million in FY 2019 and by $4.4 million in FY 2020. In other words, the amount to be raised through taxes was reduced by these amounts each year.
The Tax Rate
The actual tax rate depends upon the total Assessed Value of all property: residential, and commercial, industrial and personal (CIP). The tax rate is calculated by dividing the total dollar amount to be raised from each class by the Assessed Value of each class. Thus, the headline tax rate will also fluctuate depending upon the direction of Assessed Values.
In simplistic terms, if we assume that the $ amount to be raised increases by a little more than 2 1/2% each year, then if the average Assessed Value also increases by a little more than 2 1/2% the tax rate will be unchanged. If the increase in Assessed Values is less than 2 1/2%, then the tax rate will rise. And if the increase in Assessed Values is more than 2 1/2% then the tax rate will fall. In recent years Assessed Values have been increasing significantly more than 2 1/2% allowing for the tax rate to decline sharply.
Looking at the Swampscott residential tax rate, in FY 2019 it was $15.20, achieved by dividing $42.6 million raised from residential homeowners by the residential AV of $2.8 billion. In FY 2020 the amount to be raised from residential taxpayers is set to increase slightly to $42.9 million, but because the total residential AV increased by 7.2% to $3.0 billion, the headline tax rate has dropped sharply to just $14.30, the lowest figure since 2009.
Comment
The residential real estate market in Swampscott was stable in 2019 (and 2019 prices will be the basis for the FY 20201 tax rate), with the median price of Single Family Homes sold rising less than 1%, while the median price of the condos sold declined 2.5%. Sales in any year represent only a small percentage of the total stock so it does not follow that assessed values calculated by the town will mirror these movements.
As to the tax rate for FY 2021, that depends on a number of factors: the amount of debt service, how much of the maximum tax levy is assessed, and the shift to the CIP class being three of them. Absent some change in methodology, however, it does not seem likely that the residential tax rate will see a further decline in FY 2021.
From a residential real estate perspective, the substantial decline in the tax rate in recent years and the stability in tax bills are both very welcome news and are clearly encouraging more people to decide both to live and work in Swampscott.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Open Houses weekend January 11/12
A strange January weekend: the Pats aren’t playing and the temperature will be 60 degrees.
Here are the Open Houses. Check back tomorrow at 8 a.m. for an updated list for Sunday.
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses
and click Open Houses to check other Massachusetts towns.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County 2020 Commercial property tax rates: Town by Town guide
While most of us look at residential tax rates, fewer are concerned with commercial tax rates. Yet a healthy commercial business environment can contribute significantly to the attractiveness of a town. The map below shows commercial rates in each of Essex County’s 34 cities and towns, followed by a table comparing residential and commercial rates.
(Click here to download a copy of this map and here to download the table)
There is a bigger variation in commercial rates than in residential rates
The lowest rate for both residential and commercial rates is Rockport’s $10.10, but while the highest residential rate is Wenham’s $18.94, there are 11 towns with commercial rates over $20, with the highest being $28.42 in Salem. 20 towns set the same rate for both residential and commercial, while in 3 towns the commercial rate is more than double the residential one.
Why do some towns have different residential and commercial tax rates?
Cities and towns have the ability to increase the percentage of the total tax bill paid by commercial (and industrial and personal) property owners. The percentage of the value of property classified as commercial varies enormously from town to town.
In Marblehead, for example, where residential property is 95% of the total, a 50% tax shift to commercial would increase the average commercial tax bill from $7,003 to $10,508, while reducing the average residential tax bill by only $189.
Towns with a higher percentage of commercial property are more likely to shift an increased share of the tax bill to commercial owners.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County 2020 property tax rates: a Town by Town guide
Property tax rates for FY 2020 for all 34 cities and towns in Essex County have been announced. Below is a map (which you can download by clicking here), so that you can compare tax rates in neighboring towns, followed by the tax rates for each town the last five years. The first table shows the tax rates in alphabetical order, while the second lists them from low to high.
Tax rates for each town
Alphabetically (download a copy of this table by clicking here.
From lowest to highest based on 2020 rates (download a copy of this table by clicking here)
Median and Average Tax Rates
The median tax rate for 2020 is $13.68, down from $14.02 in 2018, while the average tax rate has dropped from $13.95 to $13.80. The highest taxed town, Wenham, has a rate 38% higher than the County median, while the lowest, Rockport, is 26% below the median. Or put another way, the highest tax rate in Essex County is 88% higher than the lowest.
How property tax rates are calculated
There are two main points to understand:
The dollar amount raised by property taxes is based on a simple formula: the dollar levy for the previous year plus 2 1/2% (Prop 2 1/2), plus any new growth (e.g. new construction), plus debt service.
The tax rate is then calculated by dividing the dollar amount to be raised by the Assessed Value of all property. For FY 2020 (July 2019-June 2020) Assessed Values are based upon sales during 2018. Sales in 2019 will be used for calculating the FY 2021 tax rates.
20 of Essex County’s cities and towns choose a single tax rate, whereby residential and commercial properties are taxed at the same rate. The other 14 cities and towns choose a split tax rate whereby commercial properties are taxed at a higher rate – in some cases a much higher rate.
A separate report on commercial tax rates can be read by clicking here.
For a walk through the tax calculation read How is Marblehead’s 2020 Tax Rate calculated?
Tax rate changes in 2020
Of the 34 cities and towns in Essex County, 22 have announced decreases in their 2020 residential tax rate while 12 have had increases approved. Decreases of 5% or more were seen in Lawrence, Amesbury, Lynn, Swampscott, Merrimac and Methuen, while 5% or larger increases were recorded in Wenham, Essex and Rowley. Bear in mind that a major determinant of the change in tax rates is the movement in Assessed Values. Thus, in a time of rising home prices, a general expectation is that tax rates should be flat to down.
Tax Rates of Neighboring Towns
Where taxes become interesting is when one can compare tax rates in neighboring towns. Many people, especially those moving to the area, whether from Boston or elsewhere, are willing to consider more than one town.There are many factors in the decision about where to live, but tax rates can be a significant influence on the decision, and may become more so with the new limitation on the deduction of property taxes from Federal taxation. Some argue that lower property values offset higher taxes. Frequently, however, residents of highly taxed towns cite taxes as a reason for wanting to move.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory slumps further
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2017. In the first chart the number for January 2020 -554 – shows the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing until June).
The second chart shows the decline YOY each month from July to December in 2019.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline, which has also accelerated, although it moderated slightly in January.
These two charts show numbers since 2017 for January to June, and July to December.
The first chart shows the decline in January 2020 YOY while in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year.
The second chart shows inventory continuing to increase in 2019 YOY in July and August, steadying in September, and then resuming the decline in October.
Comment
While the overall supply of SFHs in Essex County remains very low at just 1 month ( a market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the position varies greatly by price, as shown in this table:
Also bear in mind that the January inventory is always the lowest for the year so while the position is dire, it may not be quite a dire as these numbers suggest.
Nevertheless, the conclusion remains that the market remains in favour of sellers right up to $1.5 million, but above that dramatically swings in favour of buyers.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Open Houses Sunday December 15
Here is the updated list of today’s Open Houses:
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses
Click Other towns to search for Open Houses in towns not listed above.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory decline accelerates in December
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2016. The far right line in each column, representing 2019, shows the increase in the first half of the year followed by the resumption of the decline.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline, which has also accelerated.
These two charts show numbers since 2016 for January to June, and July to December:
Comment
While the overall supply of SFHs in Essex County remains very low at less than 2 months ( a market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the position varies greatly by price, as shown in this table:
Thus, the conclusion is that the market remains in favour of sellers right up to $1.5 million, but above that dramatically swings in favour of buyers.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Open Houses December 14/15
Here are the Open Houses this weekend. Check back tomorrow at 8 a.m. for an updated list for Sunday.
The OHs are listed by date – Saturday first.
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses
Click Other towns to search for Open Houses in towns not listed above.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
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