Marblehead pace of accepted offers doubles

I have been looking at accepted offers and this is what I have discovered for Marblehead this year vs last year:

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports

Normally, the absorption rate refers to completed sales compared with the number of properties available for sale. But sales can take 6-8 weeks to close after an offer is accepted, so using completed sales refers to activity up to 2 months earlier.

Current market activity
I have, therefore, used data for offers accepted during a month as I believe this provides a more current picture of market activity. The following table shows the average number of SFHs for sale by month and the number of accepted offers received in that month. Note that while the number of homes for sale this year is down dramatically from last year, the number of accepted offers is actually up. This is what has caused the absorption rate to double in the last two months.

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports

Essex County

We know that Marblehead has an extreme inventory shortage this year, so I looked at Essex County as a whole to see how the wider market is faring. While the increase is not as dramatic, the absorption rate this year is very similar.

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports

Comment

When mortgage rates spike as they did this week it can cause hesitant buyers to decide to buy, and it can also discourage some buyers. As has been said many times, trying to time mortgage rates is like trying to time the stock market. Both run the risk of missing out when a sharp movement occurs. Mortgage rates are moving up as a result of strong jobs growth,which bides well for the housing market.

The dominant factor in the housing market remains the shortage of supply, not mortgage rates which continue to be at near record lows.

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].

Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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