Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Here are my predictions of what will follow from COVID-19:
- People, especially families with young children, will look to move out of Boston and to towns like Marblehead with great schools, open spaces, history – and ocean
- The demand for open floor plans will give way to the desire for separate rooms. after families get bored of listening to everybody else’s Zoom calls, online classes, etc. etc.
- The perceived negative of Marblehead that commuting into Boston is a challenge (one which residents happily overcome) will diminish as more people work remotely at least some of the time.
- Did I mention the ocean?
Read Mid-Year 2020 Market Reports for in-depth reports on the markets Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem and Beverly, and a Summary of Essex County overall.
And then check out: Latest Inventory of properties for sale
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Marblehead Housing Inventory: no Fall increase
The hoped for pick up in inventory after Labor Day has not occurred, with the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale showing only a very slight increase. The current inventory represents less than 3 months of supply, compared with the generally recognized number of 6 months for a market to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
Here is the overall market, showing a decline of over 40% over the last two years:
And here is the breakdown by price. The biggest drops have, not surprisingly, come at the lower price points. Overall, the number of houses for sale under $1 million is less than half the number of two years ago. The drop has still been nearly 30% above $1 million.
Comment
The story is unchanged: low inventory, strong demand and low mortgage rates. Every real estate agent and mortgage lender has stories of multiple clients wanting to buy but not able to find a house that meets their needs. This in turn creates a situation where sellers are reluctant to list their houses for sale, afraid that they will not be able to find a house to buy. It is hard to see how this deadlock is broken, unless sellers are willing to consider taking the step of selling and being willing to rent somewhere until they find the right house.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Marblehead Inventory plummets
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Marblehead on September 1 is 52, down by one-third from last year and by nearly a half from 2015.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
SFH Inventory by price
Not surprisingly, the biggest declines in inventory are at the lowest price levels, but there are still significant declines at virtually every price level.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Median Price
Strong demand, low mortgage rates and low supply continue to drive prices upwards. The median price of a SFH in Marblehead for the first 8 months of the year was $654,000, up 75.5% from the year 2016 figure of $620,000, the first time the median price reached $600,000. Unless and until the supply position changes, and while the economy continues to grow steadily, there is no reason to expect a change in the formula which is driving prices higher.
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Marblehead house with pool AND skating rink
Only in Marblehead can you buy a house 11 Crown Way with a pool AND a skating rink*
* do not try this at home – unless you buy the home, are over 21 and sign a disclaimer with your insurance company. (more…)
Flash Mid-year housing report
The headline for the first 6 months of 2016 is that sales of both Single Family Homes (SFH) and Condos in Essex County and Massachusetts were up by 12-18% compared with 2015, while inventory is down 13-23%.
This report shows current inventory, compared with sales in the first 6 months of the year, for all 34 cities and towns in Essex County and for Essex County and Massachusetts overall.
Summary
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Single Family Homes
I have used sales for the first 6 months of the year to calculate current supply (the number of months current inventory would last at the rate of sales in the first 6 months). The market is generally considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months supply. Less than that favours sellers, more than that favours buyers.
For both Essex County and MA the supply is less than 4 months, indicating a market favouring sellers. Within Essex County there are some significant variations. Manchester stands out with nearly 13 months of supply, with only Gloucester, Ipswich, Middleton, Nahant, Rockport, Wenham and West Newbury, joining it with 6 months or more of supply.
Many more towns have very tight supply positions, with 6 towns – Danvers, Haverhill, Lawrence, Lynn, Peabody and Salem – having less than 2 months of supply:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Condos
The condo market is even tighter with just 2.5 months’ supply in Essex County and 2.3 months in Massachusetts overall. It is so tight that only Rockport, which is not a condo town, has more than 6 months of supply.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
These numbers clearly show the pattern that sales are up and inventory down pretty well across the board. With mortgage rates challenging all-time lows, and the economy growing steadily, if not strongly, the outlook should be for continued strength in the housing market.
A necessary caveat is that world events – think Brexit – may cause the world economy to slow, while here in the US the Presidential election will feature more prominently in the news come Labor Day. This may not be the time to be exceptionally brave, but it is may also not be the time to be too cautious.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Marblehead Beach House – Open House 1-3
Just updated beach house 46 Gallison Avenue with jaw-dropping views from Marblehead Harbor to Plymouth.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
More $3 million home sales
This boston.com article $3 million home sales refers to 6 sales over $3 million that occurred this week – in Boston and Weston.
After a pause, Marblehead saw a listing above $3 million receive an offer recently, so it seems that buyers are out there at the higher levels. Here’s one Marblehead oceanfront property still available 11 Crown Way.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Millennials heading to the suburbs
While popular belief is that cities have been the beneficiaries of a population shift in recent years, a recent US Census report showed that the share of population growth of the top 50 cities in the US slowed in 2015 to 20%, down from almost 27% in 2011, and has dropped each year since then. It appears in fact, as though millennials are heading to the suburbs. (more…)
Marblehead one of the “happiest places”
According to this zippia.com review of the happiest places in Massachusetts Marblehead ranks number 10 of the 115 towns with a population in excess of 2,000.
The criteria used in this analysis were:
- Being well educated (Population with at least a bachelor’s degree)
- Having a job (As measured by the unemployment rate)
- A short commute to work (God do people hate traffic)
- Low cost of living
- Having a family (Getting, and staying married, has a ton of happiness benefits, on average)
- Owning a home (That’s a big plus)
- And the poverty rate (Money definitely helps out)
Well, I looked through the list of the 9 ranked above Marblehead and I have one question for each of these towns: “where’s the ocean?” They are all inland – and happy? Really?
This is what being happy looks like:
Marblehead harbor from the Neck – courtesy of Bart Snow
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com. for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Read Which broker should I choose to list my house for sale?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Are new listings up in Marblehead?
It would be logical to assume that, after a mild winter and with continued improvement in the housing market locally, new listings this year would show an increase. That has, indeed, proved to be the case compared with last year, but total new listings in the first quarter were very similar to the number for 2013 and 2014.
Total new listings Q1
MLS, Oliver Reports
Break down by List Price
When we look at the list price of new houses on the market, we see an interesting pattern, one which gives support to the belief that prices are rising. If we focus on 2013, 2014 and 2016, when the total numbers were very similar, we see a clear trend: a sharp drop under $500,000, and modest increases up to $1.5 million.
MLS, Oliver Reports
What is the seasonal pattern of new listings?
While this article has focused on new listings in Q1, the peak period for new listings is only now underway. Note how Q1 and Q3 were similar in 2013 but in 2014 and 2015 there were more new listings in Q3. And Q4, not surprisingly, saw the lowest number in each year.
MLS, Oliver Reports
And finally, if only because these I had to calculate all these numbers to get the summaries, here are the monthly numbers.
MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
While it maybe somewhat surprising that new listings are not showing, at least so far, a greater increase from the levels of 2013 and 2014, we are now in the peak period for new listings. Half-way through April, however, we have seen just 21 new listings, not an indication of any general pick-up in listings.
The demand is clearly out there – 8 of April’s 21 new listings have already received offers – meaning this is an excellent time to list your house for sale if you are planning to move.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com. for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Read How should I choose the broker to list my house for sale?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Boston – where millennials cannot afford to buy a home
A recent Bloomberg article cited a study showing 13 cities where millennials cannot afford to buy a home. While Boston is not as a bad as some of California’s cities, it still ranked number 10 on the survey.
There is, of course, a solution for people who are being priced out of Boston (or who want to take their profits) – move to Marblehead, as many people are. (more…)
Open House TODAY. New Listing – Marblehead Old Town Antique
With winter weather due to return overnight, you may want to consider attending today’s first Open House at 59 Washington Street in Marblehead.
This Bright and sunny 1800 Antique Colonial is over 3,000 sf and has 6 Bedrooms and 4 Baths, including a self-contained 1 bed 1 bath apartment (AirBnB?). It has high ceilings, wide staircases, wide pine floors and 7 fireplaces, while also offering 2 decks and garden areas.
Open House today 12:00 – 2:00
Open House Sunday 11:30 – 1:00
Marblehead home prices set record in First Quarter
Marblehead home prices set a record in the first Quarter of 2016, with the median price of $660,000 equalling the record quarterly number in Q3 2015. But……the first quarter is almost always the lowest quarter in terms of the number of sales and, consequently, the quarter most likely to be distorted by the pattern of sales.
The goal of this blog is twofold: to report the numbers, and to interpret them. The second is the more important goal, since there are many, often automated, sources of bare bones numbers, but far fewer analyses and commentaries on the numbers.
Here is the breakdown for 2015 and 2016:
MLS, Oliver reports
And in chart form:
MLS,Oliver Reports
Commentary
In the first several months of 2015 the surprise, at least to me, was the lack of activity at the higher end in Marblehead. That changed as the year went on, and in Q1 2016 we are seeing some of that effect as sales agreed last year closed in this one. We have already had 3 sales over $3 million (1 over $4 million) and one just below that level.
As a market strengthens, so it is reasonable to expect that sales will move up into higher brackets. Note that sales between $750,000 and $1 million increased from 1 to 5, and that all sales over $750,000 doubled year over year.
While, because of the small number, I believe caution is needed as to the absolute number of the median price to start 2016, there is no doubt that the sales activity in Q1 is indicative of a healthy market. For the reasons I have mentioned it is quite likely that Q1 will see the highest median price for the year, something which last occurred in 2008 and we do not want to relive that year!
I have suggested before that 2016 may be the year when we see homeowners in Boston cashing in their profits and heading to the ‘burbs – and if you are going to move to the ‘burbs what better place to go than historic, idyllic (definition: peaceful, happy and enjoyable) Marblehead! Already this year a large percentage of buyers attending Open Houses are coming from Boston, suggesting that 2016 will be a good year for the real estate market here. (more…)
Marblehead 2015 Median Price revised
Recently, I spotted in the MLS that one SFH listing in Marblehead was still showing as pending several months after an offer had been accepted. I checked with the Registry of Deeds and found that the sale had actually closed last October, but the broker had failed to update the listing in MLS, a violation of MLS rules. (Note, this was not one of the major real estate firms, but an Entry Only listing).
No big deal, you may think, but the addition of just one sale did two things: it lowered the median price for 2015 by $2,500 to $596,500, and it caused me to redo 6 charts and tables. The first was disappointing, the second downright annoying.
Here is the revised Marblehead 2015 Housing Market review. (more…)
Only 2 Oceanfront Homes for sale in Marblehead
Recently I published Marblehead sets record for sales over $3 million highlighting the spurt in sales of Oceanfront properties recently.
The pace of sales (and the withdrawal of some properties from the market) means that there are now only 2 Oceanfront homes for sale in Marblehead, one on Ocean Avenue and 11 Crown Way, and both have Open Houses this Sunday.
DCIM101MEDIADJI_0404.JPG
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Which broker should I use to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
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