El Nino: warmer than what?
I have written before about how this year’s forecast of warmer than normal weather in the Northeast could be good news for real estate markets, but this week’s brutally cold snap raises the question, El Nino: warmer than what?
I am sure my daughter got bored, as she was growing up, of hearing me say how important it was to understand the difference between relative and absolute. Thus, if the temperature tomorrow morning is say 15 degrees, it will be relatively warmer than today’s 8 degrees, but it will still be absolutely freezing.
Looking for guidance as to what to expect for the next three months I spotted this January-March 2016 outlook from the Weather Company, thanks to wunderground, my favourite source for weather information.
The report mentions the “potential for a significant cold snap in parts of the central and eastern states starting in the middle portion of January”, but goes on “… however, there are several other factors in the atmosphere, operating on shorter time scales, that can, at times, oppose the overall three-month trend.”
OK so now I am starting to struggle with the forecast. It doesn’t get any easier: “An individual cold front or an upper ridge of high pressure can lead to a brief period of colder or warmer weather, respectively, that bucks the overall three-month trend. The same front or area of high pressure can bring a brief period of enhanced precipitation or dry spell that may or may not be indicative of the overall trend that is forecast.”
I know this is blog is meant to be rated G but I could not help noticing the reference to PV – Polar Vortex – in the following: An Icelandic storm .. tugged above-freezing air to the North Pole between Christmas and New Year’s Eve. “The rapid and unexpected destruction of the tropospheric* polar vortex, via the historically strong North Atlantic storm this week, has thrown a significant monkey wrench into the January forecast.”
OK so I think I have this clear. In the Northeast the weather is going to be warmer this winter
unless that Polar Vortex thingy does something or other in which case it will be
colder. And neither warm nor cold spells should be taken as a guide to the weather for the rest of the winter.
I love science: it is so precise.
*I know you know this but just in case it has slipped your mind, “the troposphere is the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere and site of all weather on Earth. The troposphere is bonded on the top by a layer of air called the tropopause, which separates the troposphere from the stratosphere, and on bottom by the surface of the Earth.”
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Marblehead 2015 Housing Market review and Marblehead 2015 Condo Market review. Further 2015 reviews will be published shortly.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
2015 Marblehead Condo market review
The highlights of this 2015 Marblehead Condo market review are that sales recovered back to their 2008 level, while the median price – which must always be treated with caution in a small market such as Marblehead – declined slightly. Note the analysis of sales a little further on in this report. Click here to read my review of the Single Family market.
Sales
In the years from 2000-2006, sales of condos in Marblehead averaged 71 a year; from 2007-2014 that number dropped to 43. The 53 recorded in 2015, while the best since 2008, was still well below the levels from the early 2000s.
Median Price
Because of the small number of sales and seasonal variation (weather!) I do not report on quarterly numbers for condo sales. Marblehead condo market analysis is further complicated by the fact that there are two very different markets: the older, former 2-4 apartment buildings; and the newer, purpose-built (including some harbor front) condos.
Here is a chart of the last 5 years. Note the low numbers for 2012 and the first half of 2015 and then look at the tables below the chart.
The table below shows how in 2012 sales under $300,000 accounted for 62% of the total, while in 2013, 2014 and 2015, sales under $300,000 averaged 42% of the total. That tells us that the median price in 2012 was skewed downwards by the unusually high number of lower priced sales.
2015 was a good example of the bifurcation of the condo market in Marblehead, with a median price of $241,000 in the first half and $340,500 in the second half. So let’s look at the breakdown of sales:
In H1, 10 of 18 sales – 56% – were under $250,000, while in H2 only 8 of 35 sales – just 23% – were in that price range. Here again we see evidence of how the median price can be influenced by the breakdown of sales.
In Marblehead in 2015 sales of condos took place from $120,000 to $1.3 million. What this report confirms is that there is no “condo market” as such in Marblehead, but a number of different types of condos, the number of each of which coming on the market varies from year to year.
Assessed Value to Sales Ratio (ASR)*
See below for a fuller explanation of ASR, but if sales take place above Assessed Values, then the Ratio will be below 100%. In 2015, the median ASR was 85.8%, which means that the median condo sold for 17% more than its Assessed Value.
Supply
Even Marblehead was not immune to the challenges faced more widely in the condo market during the great recession, when financing became much more difficult for condos, particularly in mixed use and older developments. In July 2009 there were 50 condos for sale in Marblehead, but that number has dropped sharply in the last few years:
Conclusion
The supply of condos for sale in Marblehead has dropped, while there are few new condos being built or converted.That is a formula for higher prices.
* One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%. What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling. The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall. So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.
Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills that have just been sent out for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
2015 Marblehead housing market review
This 2015 Marblehead housing market review focuses on the Single Family Home (SFH) market. I have published a separate Marblehead 2015 condo market review.
In summary, sales were down modestly from last year – at 239 vs 245 – and the median price was up slightly at a new record $596,500, compared with $590,000 in 2014.
It is important to bear in mind that only around 4% of Marblehead’s SFHs change hands publicly in any year, but 4% is a reasonable sample, with sales taking place from $267,000 to $4.6 million.
And there is seasonality in the market, as you will see from looking at the quarterly median price numbers which ranged from $535,000 to $660,000.
Median price
The first chart, with the numbers below, shows the median price for the two halves of the year and for the full year. The $614,500 median price in the second half of 2015 was a new record, beating the $600,000 in 2014, which was the first time Marblehead recorded a median price of $600,000 in any half-year.
The quarterly numbers show how the market can vary. After 9 months it looked as though we were going to see a median price for the year well over $600,000, but sales in the last quarter were skewed to the lower end. In Q3 the median price finally broke the old record for any quarter, the $645,000 recorded in Q3 2006. Ironically, that quarter was followed by a quarter with a median price of $539,950, a difference of 16%, while in 2015 the change from Q3 to Q4 was 17%.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Sales
Sales were modestly down from last year, but were still the second highest total since 2004:
The tables show the breakdown in sales by price for the last three years. First overall sales.
The next tables break down sales in more detail. First, sales under $600,000. In 2014 and 2015, 51% of sales were under $600,000, evidence confirming that the median price (that at which 50% are higher and 50% lower) was also just under $600,000. Note that in 2013, 63% were under $600,000, indicating that the median price was well below $600,000 (it was $535,000).
As prices ( and buyers) moved up so the percentage in the next brackets increased. As in the lower bracket, the main change occurred in 2014 (when the median price increased 10%), while there was little change from 2014 to 2015:
That pattern – the big change from 2013 to 2014, with 2015 being pretty stable, was also seen in sales at $1 million and above. Perhaps the biggest surprise of 2015 was that the top end did not see more sales. There was, however, increased activity towards the end of the year, and I will write a separate report on that segment of the market;
Assessed Value to Sales Ratio (ASR)
One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%.
As we all hope out properties are worth more than the AV we look for an ASR below 100% as a positive sign. Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills that have just been sent out for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.
What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling. The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall. So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.
Let’s look at the ASR in recent years:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The ASR has fallen steadily since 2009. At 87.4% in 2015, the median house in Marblehead sold for 14% (100/87.4 – 1) above its Assessed Value. I was surprised that AVs did not increase more for the FY2016 tax bills that have just gone out, but I am confident that AVs will increase in FY2017 by more than they did in FY2016, but that’s a subject for another report.
Outlook for 2016
I am, of course, an optimist, but there are several reasons to expect a strong market in 2016:
– historically, when mortgage rates start to move up, buyers are active, fearing they may miss the low rates
– the winter is unlikely to be as harsh as the last two, so there may not be the same economic slowdown in the first quarter
– the Massachusetts economy continues to do well
– with the boom in Boston, prices here look even more attractive
– and finally, supply, of which there is very little. Currently, there are just 42 SFHs for sale in Marblehead, and only 6 of them (!) are under the 2015 median price!
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read How should I choose the broker to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Open Houses 11, Patriots?? Many more, we hope.
Real estate agents aren’t dummies. With the Pats playing the Dolphins today at 1 pm, there are just 11 Open Houses – SFHs and Condos – in Marblehead, Beverly, Salem and Swampscott combined – and all but 1 of them start before the Pats kick off at 1 pm. (more…)
Solar tax credits extended for 5 years
In my Solar panels: are they right for you? article in September I referred to the fact that the federal tax credit for solar panels was due to expire in 2016. Well, in the recent budget, solar tax credits were extended for 5 years. (more…)
Lies, damned lies and statistics in Cambridge
Frustrated by the inaccuracies of so many real estate “statistics”, the first article I wrote for the Marblehead Reporter in 2008 was Lies, damned lies and statistics. My goal in Oliver Reports is both to report on numbers in real estate and explain their significance – or not. There is nothing I find more frustrating than seeing a number reported without context and without understanding from the writer. Which takes me to Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics in Cambridge. (more…)
78% jump in Oliver Reports page views in 2015
When I started writing Oliver Reports in late 2012 I had two questions: could I maintain my promised goal of publishing at least every week on Saturday at 8 a.m. and would anybody want to read my articles?
Well, 570 posts later I can say that I have not yet failed to publish early on Saturday, as well as at various other times, while I am delighted to report that 2015 saw a 78% increase in the number of posts viewed by my readers, to whom I say a big thank you.
In this instant internet age, we are all inundated by an avalanche of “information”, but very often we have no way of knowing how reliable that information is. If, of course, it comes from a trusted source – say the New York Times or Wall Street Journal – then we can assume that the reporter has researched thoroughly. But those sources are not free, and many, if not most, people expect to be able to gain access to information today without paying.
I first started writing for the Marblehead Reporter because I was frustrated by the many inaccuracies, inconsistencies and misunderstandings I noticed when reading about real estate. I started writing to try to help people understand what was really happening in real estate markets. I wrote first about Marblehead and have gradually extended to covering the whole of Essex County, as well as commenting on State wide and national trends. I try to write about whatever is relevant, from home sales to property taxes to mortgage rates. And I also write more generally about real estate, whether it is who will be John Kerry’s new neighbor or details of one of Elvis’s houses.
Thanks for reading. Over the next few weeks, starting tomorrow, I shall be publishing my 2015 reviews. Feedback is always welcome. (more…)
Seaport condos see cash buyers dominate
22 Liberty is a luxury development of 104 condos in the Seaport neighborhood in Boston and The Bates Real Estate Report has analyzed the First sales at 22 Liberty. Perhaps the most interesting fact in this analysis is that about 60% of the transactions had no mortgage involved – in other words cash buyers.
In addition to the analysis by David Bates, I have calculated that the average price paid to date is just over $3 million and the average price per sq.ft. is $1,568.
Naturally, I then looked at sales over $3 million in 2015 on the North Shore. There have been just 10 sales this year (with 3 of those in Marblehead) of Single Family Homes with an average price per sq.ft. of $685, or well under half the Seaport average. And all of these were on or overlooking the ocean.
And if you want a condo, two 2,000 plus sq.ft. oceanfront condos in Swampscott sold for an average of $575 per sq.ft.
Different markets, different buyers, but it does seem to me that there is some extraordinary value on offer on the North Shore today. (more…)
Yes Virginia there will be a winter this year
After basking in 70 degree weather over the Christmas period, New England is doing its traditional about-face and there is now snow and frost in the forecast.
I am therefore republishing this excellent Boston Globe winter house prep checklist, which goes through the house sector by sector. (more…)
Open Houses or Patriots vs Jets? No contest.
In my Open Houses and the Patriots post I quoted a survey which said that 64% of real estate agents did not schedule Open Houses when the Patriots were playing. I suspect that number may fluctuate somewhat with the stage of the season and the identity of the opponent. Well today, the Pats are playing the Jets, and a win for the Pats would secure the number 1 seed while also knocking out the Jets from the play-offs.
(more…)
Why you understand mortgage rates better than many commentators do
Just over a week ago the Federal Reserve increased short-term interest rates and I explained in What the Fed’s rate increase mean for mortgage rates that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate was not affected by the Fed Funds rate but by the yield on the US 10 year Treasury.
If you read my article and were a journalist you would not have written articles I saw this week with headlines such as “Defying Fed hike, 30-year mortgage rate slips” or “30-year mortgage rate drops in spite of Fed hike”. (more…)
Essex County property tax rates for 2016
Essex County property tax rates for 2016 have been announced. Here is a map (so that you can compare tax rates in neighboring towns) and the changes over the last two years, followed by my comments:
Mass. Dept of Revenue
How property tax rates are calculated
I wrote How your property taxes are calculated earlier this year.
There are two main points to understand:
The dollar amount raised by property taxes is based on a simple formula: the dollar levy for the previous year plus 2 1/2% (Prop 2 1/2), plus any new growth (e.g. new construction), plus any voter-approved overrides or debt exclusions.
The tax rate is then calculated by dividing the dollar amount by the Assessed Value of all property. For FY2016 (July 2015-June 2016) Assessed Values are based upon sales during 2014.
Thus, the dollar amount will always increase from year to year, but the tax rate depends upon what happens to Assessed Values (AV). Here are examples. All assume a 4% increase in the dollar amount to be raised from taxes.The variable is the change in the AV. In the years when AVs were declining, tax rates rose. As AVs are now increasing we should expect to see tax rates flat to down.
Tax rate changes in 2016
Of the 34 cities and towns in Essex County, 14 have announced decreases in their tax rate while 20 have had increases approved.The median change was an increase of just 0.2%.
Of the decreases 7 were 1% or less, while the largest decrease was the 6.8% in West Newbury.
While there were more increases, 9 were 1% or less. The largest increase by far was the 9.9% in Ipswich.
Outlook for 2017
With one week left in the year it seems the median price of a Single Family Home in Essex County will increase about 3.5% in 2015, and it is 2015 sales which will be used in calculating FY2017 tax rates. Since the dollar amount to be raised from property taxes will naturally continue to increase, at this stage it seems reasonable to expect little overall change in tax rates for FY2017, but there will, as always, be fluctuations from town to town.
I am publishing below a downloadable spreadsheet showing tax rates by city and town for the last 5 years.
Essex County Residential tax rates_2012_16_
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker will find the buyer for my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Home sales plunge – or do they?
A recent article headlined a home sales plunge in November, but as always it pays to look into the numbers in more detail.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) used a more moderate headline in its Existing home sales suffer setback in November report.
So what actually happened in November? (more…)
What the Fed’s rate increase means for mortgage rates
For the first time since before the introduction of the iPhone the Federal Reserve (Fed) members voted to increase the target rate for federal funds (FF). The increase is 1/4% and was widely expected. What does this mean for mortgage rates? The key is to understand which rates are impacted by the Fed Funds rate and which are dependent upon interest rates set by the market.
Which rates are based upon the Fed Funds rate?
30 year fixed rate mortgages (FRN) are not based on the FF rate, but are most closely tied to the yield on 10 year US Treasuries(10T). More on that in a minute. (more…)
2016 property tax rates: waiting on Rockport
There are 34 cities and towns in Essex County and 33 of them have announced their 2016 property tax rates. The exception is Rockport which has posted this on its website: “The first half of Fiscal Year 2016 Real Estate taxes have been delayed.”
Once Rockport makes it announcement I shall post a full list of 2016 tax rates. (more…)
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