Housing Inventory Jumps after Labor Day
My monthly review of housing inventory as of the first of the month is preempted this month because the period after Labor Day usually sees a jump in listings at the start of the “second selling season.”
First let me show the change in the first week after Labor Day for Essex County:
Conventional wisdom is correct: there is a jump in new listings after Labor Day, but note that the number of SFHs for sale as of September 6 is some 12% down from 2018.
How does inventory compare with a year ago?
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The next two charts (the first for January to June, the second July to December) show the SFH inventory as of the 1st of the month since 2016. After increasing Year-on-Year (YOY) for 11 consecutive months, from August 2018 to June 2019, YOY inventory has now dropped for the last three months.
Condos
YoY increases were seen for 13 months, from June 2018 until August 2019. September was basically flat from last year.
Comment
With so many different and confusing economic indicators, the one constant in recent months has been the continuing drop in mortgage rates. As highlighted in Mortgage rates drop to 3.5% the 30-year Fixed rate Mortgage rate has dropped from almost 5% last Thanksgiving to 3.5% currently.
Since late last year I have consistently written that I expected 2019 to see a slowing, but still growing, economy and a stable housing market. With an election just over a year ago, logic suggests that a compromise with China over trade will be worked out, which should ensure continued growth.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory declining again
Following year over year (YOY) increases for 11 consecutive months until June, the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County fell in August for the second month in a row.
Condos
The condo market is the focus on much of the new construction that takes place,and inventory at the beginning of August increased YOY for the 15th consecutive month.
Comment
It is summer, a quiet time in real estate markets, but this summer has seen a continuation of the sharp drop in mortgage rates, from almost 5% last November to 3.6% this week.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Inventory growth slows
After 11 consecutive months of Year on Year (YOY) increases in the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFHs) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County, July saw a very slight decline – but still a decline, ending the streak at 11 months.
The first chart shows the numbers for the months of January to June; the second for July through December. While inventory is close to 2017 levels, it is still way below 2016 numbers.
Condos
There was no similar slowdown in the growth of Condos, possible because this is the segment of the market which sees most of the new supply, and the YOY number increased for the 14th consecutive month. That new supply helps to see inventory exceed 2017 levels, but it is still well below that of 2016.
Comment
One of my favourite comments is the importance of understanding the difference between relative and absolute. In this case, while there may be relatively more SFHs and Condos for sale than a year ago, in absolute terms the number is still very low.
If we accept “conventional wisdom” that a market in equilibrium between buyers and sellers has 6 months of supply, the market is still heavily slanted in favour of sellers. The supply at July 1st in Essex County for SFHs was a little over 2 months while for condos it was a little below 2 months.
But that is the starting point for a more detailed analysis, as conditions vary greatly by price and by town.
Check back tomorrow for a breakdown of supply at different price points for North Shore towns.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory back to 2017 levels
For the 12th consecutive month the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County increased compared with the same month of the previous year. For the last two months the 2019 number has returned to the levels of 2017.
Condos
The number of Condos for sale increased, compared with the same month of the prior year, for the 13th consecutive month in June.For the last two months the number has been running ahead of 20-17 levels. (more…)
Essex County Inventory: Town by Town
Conventional wisdom is that a market is in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when the inventory represents 6 months of supply.
The table below lists inventory in terms of months of supply from the lowest to highest and suggests that nearly every town in Essex County is still seeing a seller’s market:
Essex County Inventory Increases Further
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County increased year over year (YOY) for the 11th consecutive month in May:
(more…)
Housing Inventory increase continues
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County increased year-over-year for the 9 th consecutive month, with levels back in line with 2017 numbers:
Condos
The story is similar with Condos where the increase year-on-year has been happening for 10 months.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.andrewJoliver.com
www.OliverReports.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Inventory starts 2019 continuing rising trend
Inventory in New England is always low in the first few months of the year, but it is significant that it has increased Year-on-Year (YOY) for the last 7 months for Single Family Homes (SFH) and for the last 8 months for Condos.
SFH
Condos
Comment
While inventory has been increasing steadily for some months, in absolute terms it is still low. In tomorrow’s blog post I shall break down the supply by price in local markets.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.OliverReports.com
617.834.8205
Housing Inventory continues to climb
The recent trend has continued with year-over-year (YOY) increases in the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFH) in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County for the 6th month in succession and of condos for the 7th month.
SFHs
The first chart shows the first half of the year when inventory was still declining YOY. The second chart shows YOY increases for every month in July to December. Note that inventory levels are pretty well back to 2016 levels, while still well below those of 2014/15:
Condos
The first chart shows the first half of the year when inventory was declining YOY until June. The second chart shows YOY increases for every month in July to December. Note that inventory levels are not yet back to 2016 levels, while still well below those of 2014/15:
Comment
The December numbers continue the trend commented on for the last several months as rising inventory offers more options for home buyers. Read Is a recession coming soon? for my view on the outlook for the economy and housing market.
Andrew Oliver
www.OliverReports.com
Realtor
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Tel: 617.834.8205
Housing Inventory Continues to Increase
While the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) increased, year-on-year, for the 5th consecutive month, the absolute level is back only to 2016 levels:
The increase in supply of condos (for the 6th consecutive month year- on-year) has been dramatic during the course of the year, but it was starting from a low base and has not yet returned to 2016 levels.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact Andrew Oliver on 617.834.8205 or Kathleen Murphy on 603.498.6817.
If you are looking to buy, we will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver and Kathleen Murphy are Realtors with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Housing inventory jumps sharply in September
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County jumped 15% in September from a year ago, the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year increases, and reached the highest level since October 2016:
The number of condos for sale jumped 13% from a year ago, the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year increases, and reached the highest level since November 2016:
Comment
After several years of decline, inventory bottomed out in the first quarter of 2018 and has been increasing year-on-year for 4 months for SFHs and 5 months for condos. While actual levels remain well below those of 2015, it is clear that buyers are now seeing more options than they have in recent years.
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.SaganHarborside.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory increases again
The number of Single Family Homes (SFHS) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County, as measured on the first of the month and compared with a year ago, increased for the 3rd consecutive month in September. This date, of course, was just before Labor Day, and there has been a sharp jump in the number of SFHs for sale in the last few days.
The number of Condos for sale increased for the 4th consecutive month.
Comment
The percentage increases in the first few days of September was significantly greater in 2018 than in 2017, especially for condos. For both SFHs and Condos inventory is the highest in almost two years.
A later report will analyze the supply by individual city and town.
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
The North Shore’s only Sotheby’s International Realty affiliate
www.SaganHarborside.com
Housing Inventory increases for 2nd month in a row
(Click here to download a PDF of this report.)
After 26 months of declining inventory year-over-year, August marked the second consecutive monthly increase for Single Family Homes (SFH) in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County. But read on to the section about supply which shows that inventory remains extremely low despite the modest recent increases.
Condo inventory declined for 44 consecutive months, year over year, until June and has now increased for 3 months in a row.
Supply
A market is normally regarded as being in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when the current supply is equivalent to 6 months of sales. Anything less than that is seen as a sellers’ market, meaning there are more buyers than sellers.Thus, while inventory has shown some modest year over year increases in the last couple of months, supply remains very tight in most markets in Essex County. Overall, the supply of SFHs is just 2.6 months,with only 6 towns showing supply of 6 months or more.
The Condo market is even tighter, with only 1.9 months of supply and no individual town recording 6 months.
Comment
While inventory has shown a welcome year over year increase recently, overall supply still strongly favours sellers – at the right price.
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.SaganHarborside.com
Has Housing Inventory finally bottomed?
Housing inventory in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County has been declining steadily since 2014, but the latest figures suggest that the decline may finally be coming to an end. Inventory is still down about 30% from 2015 and 15% from 2016, but there has actually been a slight increase in the last month. More detailed analyses for individual towns will be published in the near future.
Housing Inventory continues to shrink
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County as of February 1 is down 23% from a year ago and down 42% compared with 2015.
The chart below shows the overall numbers for Essex County and Massachusetts, followed by tables for each city and town.
OliverReports.com
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact Andrew Oliver on 617.834.8205 or Kathleen Murphy on 603.498.6817.
If you are looking to buy, we will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver and Kathleen Murphy are Realtors with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
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