Housing Supply is limited in Marblehead and Swampscott
In my Inventory starts 2019 continuing rising trend article yesterday I commented: While inventory has been increasing steadily for some months, in absolute terms it is still low.
Inventory in New England is always low in the first few months of the year, and activity in the first quarter of the year is very weather dependent, but in this article I show the current inventory (in terms of months of supply*) for Marblehead and Swampscott, as well as for Essex County overall.
Marblehead
Only 3 houses currently for sale under $600,000 and only 18 under $1 million.
Swampscott
Just 10 houses for sale under $1 million.
Essex County
Very limited supply under $1 million.
* a market is generally regarded as being in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when supply is 6 months
Comment
The economy is still strong, if slowing somewhat, and mortgage rates have dropped back to 4.5%.
It is early January and it is New England and winter, but there do seem to be opportunities for sellers in many price ranges.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.OliverReports.com
617.834.8205
Marblehead Q3 Report: Median Price reaches $700,000
[Click here to download a copy of this report.]
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the first 9 months of 2018 reached $700,000, a 7% increase year on year. Sales declined again, reflecting the shortage of inventory. (Numbers in bold represent record levels).
Median Price
The first chart shows the median price for the first 9 months of the year. The second one shows the quarterly median prices which tend to fluctuate, in part because Marblehead is a seasonal market, with most sales taking place in the second and third quarters of the year.Note that the median price has exceeded $700,000 in 4 of the last 5 quarters.
Sales
Lack of inventory has been a constant factor for some time and this is the prime reason that sales YTD are 20% lower than they were in 2016. The impact of rising prices can be seen by the fact that the proportion of sales under $600,000 dropped from 50% in 2016 to 39% in 2017 and to just 27% in 2018.
The combination of strong demand and low supply meant that about one-third of sales YTD took place at or above list price. This phenomenon was not limited to houses at the lower end. A house on Gregory Street sold for $260,000 more than its $1.9 million list price.
Current inventory
This chart shows the inventory as of October 1st for the last three years. While overall inventory is lower than it was in 2016, there has been an increase since 2017, and current inventory is the highest during 2018. Compared with 2016 there are fewer houses for sale between $600,000 and $1.5 million, and more between $1.5 million and $3 million. For those who like symmetry, note the repetition of the number 10 in current inventory.
Condos
The condo market in Marblehead is quite small and varies widely from purpose built harborside condos to the conversion of former 2 and 3 family buildings. The combination of a varied market and a small number of sales can lead to fluctuations in the median price, but overall the condo market in Marblehead has been quite consistent in the last two years.
Note, however, that as a reflection of demand, almost 4 in 10 of YTD sales took place at or over list price:
Comment
The numbers confirm that the median price of the SFHs sold in Marblehead in recent years has shown steady, but not outrageous, increases. As the year has progressed, supply has increased, as have mortgage rates. These two factors may help to bring supply and demand into better balance in 2019.
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.SaganHarborside.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Marblehead Q3 2018 Housing Market By The Numbers
[Click here to download a copy of this report.]
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the first 9 months of 2018 reached $700,000, a 7% increase year on year. Sales declined again, reflecting the shortage of inventory. (Numbers in bold represent record levels).
Condos
Overall the condo market in Marblehead has been quite consistent in the last two years.
Note, however, that almost 4 in 10 of YTD sales took place at or over list price.
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.SaganHarborside.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Marblehead Mid-Year 2018 Housing Market Report
(Click here to download a PDF of this report)
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFHs) sold in Marblehead in the first half of 2018 increased by 10% from a year ago to $692,500. In 16 of the last 18 years – the exceptions being during the Great Recession in 2010/11 – the median price has been higher in the second half of the year than in the first.
As the chart below shows, prices can and do fluctuate from quarter to quarter, but it is worth noting that only twice in the last 18 years has the highest price for the year been achieved in the first quarter.
Sales
Sales declined, largely as a result of the shortage of inventory, as demand remained very strong.
Sales by Price
Just one in 10 sales in the first half of 2018 occurred below $500,000, while just over half the sales took place between $600,000 and $1 million. Sales over $1 million were up sharply from last year, which saw a slow start to such sales.
Of the 85 sales, 25 occurred above the list price while 7 were at list price.
Current Inventory
While inventory has increased somewhat in recent weeks, it is still below the level of prior years and currently there are just 24 houses for sale for under $1 million.
Condos
The condo market in Marblehead is small and varies from old 2-3 family conversions to purpose-built oceanfront units. Those two factors can – and frequently – do cause wide swings in the recorded median price. The larger the sample the more reliable the number (the law of large numbers) so I place some confidence in the half-yearly number and most in the full year’s figure. Note also the breakdown in sales by price shown after the pricing information.
Condos For Sale
As of July 1 there were just 2 condos for sale under $450,000.
Summary
Higher mortgage rates in the first half of 2018 had little or no effect on demand which continued to outstrip supply. With only 12 of 54 SFHs currently for sale and 8 of 17 pending sales having list prices under $700,000, it seems likely that the median price may well exceed $700,000 for the year for the first time.
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Marblehead Antique now under $600,000!
Originally listed at $699,000, this Victorian gem at 8 Pond Street is now just $599,000. Open House today 12:00-2:00.
Victorian charm and beauty in updated gem. Short walk to old town shopping and harbor. Just outside Historic District. Natural wood trim and hardwood floors. Fully landscaped yard.Large deck.
Three bedrooms, 1.5 baths plus bonus room for office.
Mudroom off the eat -in kitchen. Laundry in basement.
Shed building on property for storage.
Freshly painted, move-in ready.
New bathrooms. Ultra efficient, gas modulating boiler.
Four car parking in stone driveway, new in 2014. Large fenced yard.
Architect’s home for 31 years.
Alteration and renovations continued thru 2016. Entire interior and exterior has been carefully maintained and improved over time. Copper front porch roof w/copper gutters and downspouts. Also new custom copper roof ventilator for air movement installed with 50 year asphalt shingles.
New rear deck designed and built for enjoyment with direct access to the yard.
Red cedar clapboard updated as required and entire house painted 2014 with acrylic latex, plus shed.
Spike in Marblehead Houses for sale under $750,000
One of the laments of the house market in Marblehead – where the median price of sales YTD is approaching $700,000 – has been the shortage of homes for sale under $750,000.
That has suddenly changed in June, as this chart shows:
Here is a list of those houses (note that 17 Elm, 6 Cloutmans, 17 Ruby and 6 Susan have received offers):
Marblehead SFH under $750,000. 16 of them have Open Houses today.
Please call me on 617.834.8205 or Kathleen Murphy on 603.498.6817 if you would like to see any of these homes.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact Andrew Oliver on 617.834.8205 or Kathleen Murphy on 603.498.6817.
If you are looking to buy, we will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver and Kathleen Murphy are Realtors with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Are houses coming to the market in Marbehead and Swampscott?
This article follows up a couple of recent posts demonstrating that while 50% of houses may be selling in 30 days or less, that means that 50% are taking 30 days or longer to sell.
The tables below shows that houses are coming on to the market. While the number of houses for sale in the last 6 weeks has increased by just 7 in both Marblehead and Swampscott, there have been 40 new listings in Marblehead during that period and 37 in Swampscott.
There are houses for sale: you need to be ready to act and also willing to look at those houses which have been on the market for a little while.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact Andrew Oliver on 617.834.8205 or Kathleen Murphy on 603.498.6817.
If you are looking to buy, we will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver and Kathleen Murphy are Realtors with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
How quickly are homes selling in Marblehead?
We all know that there is in general a shortage of houses available for sale – other than at higher price points. Writing a report saying that the supply is 3 or 4 or 2 months at recent sales levels doesn’t add to the pool of knowledge – it just makes buyers feel more anxious!
This report analyzes the Single Family Home (SFH) market in Marblehead and looks at how quickly houses receive offers once they hit the market.The charts show the percentage of houses that received offers in the first 29 days on the market. Pending sales – those with an accepted offer which have not yet closed – show the highest figure – 71% received that offer within 29 days, while the number drops to around 50% for both Sold YTD and currently For Sale.
The percentages vary by price point, but the takeaway here is – yes, houses are selling quickly if they are attractively priced, but half the houses have been on the market for 30 days or more.
So scan the new listings and call to make an appointment to see a house that looks like it meets your needs, but don’t ignore the houses that have been on the market for a while.
Unless you have an unlimited budget, buying a house involves some compromise between your perfect home and what you can buy, so please go and look at houses. Many people buy homes they didn’t think worked for them – until they visited them and figured out that, yes, this one would work for my family!
Current Inventory by price
Market Overall
As mentioned half the houses have been on the market for 30 days or longer, but 71% of pending sales received an offer within 29 days.
OliverReports.com
Essex County Q1 2018 housing market: prices continue to increase
The first Quarter of the year is the slowest one for sales in Essex County (weather!), typically representing about 15% of the year’s total. The smaller the number of sales the less significant is the data, so the numbers for individual towns can and do fluctuate from quarter to quarter.
As the numbers get bigger so does the significance. In the 34 cities and towns of Essex County overall, sales of Single Family Homes (SFH) were down 4% from Q1 2017 while the median price increased 4.4%.
In the whole of Massachusetts, sales were flat and the median price increased 3%,
The table below shows the median SFH price for each town for the last three years; and the median price and sales for Q1 for 2017 and 2018. The mid-year data, which I shall publish in mid-July, will give a better feel for the market in individual cities and towns, but these numbers support the general perception that the housing market in Essex County continues to show price increases.
OliverReports.com
Marblehead: 2017 Housing Market sets another record
(Click here to download a pdf of this report.)
In 2017 the median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in Marblehead increased by $45,000, or 7%, to $665,000, a new record high for the fourth year in a row. As in every year since 2000 except 2010 and 2011, the median price was higher in the second half of the year than in the first half, breaching $700,000 for the first time.
Sales were down only modestly, despite the low inventory all year, while the number of SFHs for sale on average dropped about 25% from the levels of the two prior years, and by 45% compared with 2014.
It is important to bear in mind that only around 4% of Marblehead’s more than 6,200 SFHs change hands publicly in any year, but 4% is a reasonable sample, with sales taking place from $290,000 to $5.8 million.
Median price
The first chart shows median prices since 2000. I find it helpful to look at longer term trends and this chart shows how prices – which had already risen for some years prior to 2000 – jumped sharply in the early years of the millennium, dropped during the Great Recession, recovered, and have now hit new highs for the last 4 years. Below the chart is a table of prices since 2000.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The second chart shows the median price for the two halves of the year and for the full year for the last 5 years. The second half of 2017 saw a significant upward movement.
The next chart shows how the market can vary from quarter to quarter. In the last 5 years the highest quarterly median price has been recorded once in Q1 and twice each in Q3 and Q4.
Sales
Despite all the (accurate) stories of the lack of inventory throughout 2017 sales were down quite modestly and have been more or less flat for the last 5 years, recovering from the slump of the Great Recession, but still not back to the levels of the peak years. There is no doubt that lack of supply has been holding back sales.
Sales by price
The table shows the breakdown in sales by price for the last four years.
Within basically flat total sales there have been major shifts. 2017 saw a sharp drop in sales in the $4-600,000 range, while sales increased in all brackets from $600,000-$1.5 million. 2017 also saw 2 sales at $5.8 million, the highest ever recorded in MLS.
Houses For Sale
The seasonality of the number of houses for sale largely disappeared in 2017 – the traditional spring pick-up in inventory failed to materialize. The fact that total sales were down only slightly despite the low inventory implies that houses were generally selling more quickly than in prior years.
We start 2018 with just 24 SFHs for sale and 15 of those are above $1 million. The cheapest SFH listed is $519,000 and there are just 3 under $700,000.
Assessed Value to Sales Ratio (ASR)
One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall. In a period of rising prices the ASR is likely, as a lagging indicator, to be below 100%.
As we hope out properties are worth more than the AV an ASR below 100% is a positive sign. Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills that have just been sent out for FY2018 are based on actual sales in 2016. Thus the 2017 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2019 assessments. And my data compares 2017 sales with AVs based upon 2016 prices.
Let’s look at the ASR in recent years:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
For the last 4 years the ASR has been around 90% or below, indicating that the median sale has been taken place at about a 10% premium to Assessed Value, despite the increases in Assessed Values.
Outlook for 2018
Immediately after the 2016 Election I published What does the Election mean for real estate markets? in which I made the bullish case: “The removal of a lot of strangling regulations and the end of gridlock in Congress will produce stronger economic growth. Major infrastructure spending will boost jobs and wages at the lower end, while lower corporate tax rates and lower personal tax rates will produce increased personal wealth. Interest rates will rise, reflecting the stronger economy, and the demand for housing will increase. Greater wealth and confidence will provide a boost to the higher end of the market.” I concluded:”I have no doubt that 2017 will provide many surprises along the way, but with a stronger economy and low supply of houses for sale, there seems little reason for home prices in Marblehead not to continue their steady, but modest, upward movement.”
Um, well we got many surprises…..and some of the economic progress, and prices increased perhaps more than modestly. As for 2018? There are a lot of variables, particularly as people in States like Massachusetts try to figure out how they come out with the tax changes. The economy may well grow at a faster rate than in recent years, which would place upward pressure on interest rates and mortgage rates, while it is hard to see at this stage what will increase the supply of houses for sale.
Andrew Oliver
www.OliverReports.com
Marblehead Q3 market hits new record high
Here is a summary of the market in Marblehead – a full report will be published shortly. Click Marblehead_Q3_2017_summary to download a printable copy of this summary.
Single Family Homes(SFH)
The median price of a SFH exceeded $700,000 for the first time in the third quarter. YTD the median price increased 7% to a new high of $656,000. With most of Q4 sales already under agreement, it is quite likely that the median price will exceed $700,000 for the second half of the year. Sales were down slightly YTD, a consequence of the low inventory all year.
Condos
Marblehead has a small condo market and one which varies from waterfront purpose-built condos to conversions of former apartments. As such, the median price can and does fluctuate. What is notable is that nearly half the sales this year to date have taken place at or above the list price.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Marblehead Mid-Year Report: Onwards and Upwards
Despite the low level of inventory all year, sales of Single family Homes (SFHs) were very similar to those of the previous 5 years, but the median price increased by more than 5% to a new high for the first half of the year of $628,000.
The condo market saw a slight increase in sales, while the median price, which declined 9% to $340,000, reflected a sharp increase in sales in the $250-350,000 range compared with 2016. Nevertheless, 10 of the 27 Condo sales in the first half of the year took place above the list price, an indication of strong demand.
Single Family Homes (SFH)
Here is the chart of half-yearly median prices since 2012, followed by a table showing quarterly numbers. Note that the median price has been higher in the second half of the year in each year recently. In fact, the second half has seen a higher median price in every year since 2000 except for 2010 and 2011.
In a seasonal (think winter) market with a limited number of sales, quarterly fluctuations can and frequently do occur (which is why I place greater emphasis on semi-annual and annual numbers).
Sales
With inventory being in short supply all year, it is perhaps surprising that sales have come in very close to the levels of the last few years:
SFH Sales by price
This table shows that the percentage of houses selling below $600,000 has declined in the last three years from 53% to 51% and now 44%. Since the median price is that at which 50% of sales are higher and 50% lower, as the percentage dropped from above 50% to below it, so the median price has moved from under $600,000 to above it.
Note also that the number of sales over $1 million dropped from 17 in both 2015 and 2016 to just 8 in 2017. There are, however, 20 SFHs currently under agreement with list prices over $1 million, so it appears that activity at the higher end has been picking up of late. We have already had the record MLS sale at $5.8 million and another house, listed at just under $6 million, has recently gone under agreement.
Current SFH Inventory
For the first time that I recall, inventory is lower in 2017 than it was last year in all price ranges. Hitherto, the feature of inventory has been the divergence between available houses under around $750,000 and supply above that price range.
The drop in supply is most acute in the $500,000-$1 million range. Between $500,000 and $750,000 there are just 12 houses for sale, down from 23 a year ago; and from $750,000 to $1 million, the number for sale has dropped from 19 to just 9.
Condo Market
The condo market in Marblehead is small and varies from old 2-3 family conversions to purpose-built oceanfront units. Those two factors can – and frequently – do cause wide swings in the recorded median price. The larger the sample the more reliable the number (the law of large numbers) so I place some confidence in the half-yearly number and most in the full year’s figure. Note also the breakdown in sales by price shown after the pricing information.
Condo Sales by price
Last year almost 60% of sales were above $350,000, while this year 60% occurred below $350,000.
Current Condo Inventory
The main change in inventory is the sharp drop under $250,000.
COMMENT
While the median price of a SFH increased by nearly 6% in the first half to a new high of $628,000, there are signs that the median price increase may be accelerating. As of today there are just 8 SFHs for sale under $600,000. Furthermore, the median list price of the 53 SFHs sold so far in July (4) or pending (49) is $765,000.
The first half saw some dramatic bidding wars for houses, with 20 of the SFH sales taking place above list price.
For years I have reported that the market in Marblehead has shown steady, but unspectacular progress. The market here did not get carried away during the boom of the early 2000s nor did it collapse in the Great Recession. It will be interesting to see if the fervour moderates as we head into a traditionally slower selling seasons after July 4th.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Is there really an inventory shortage?
You have all read – and I have written enough – about the chronic shortage of inventory to assume that the answer to this question is a resounding yes. But it all depends on price.
A market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when the number of homes for sale equals about 6 months of sales. I have put together charts for Marblehead, Swampscott and Essex County overall, showing, by price, the number of sales so far this year plus the number scheduled to close by June 30 and compared that with the number of homes currently for sale. If the market were in equilibrium – the two bars for each price would be the same size.
Let’s see what we have. First, let’s look at the overall market for Marblehead and Swampscott: clearly supply is below the level of a market in equilibrium, so it is a sellers’ market.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Now let’s look in more detail. First, Marblehead:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
At all price points up to $1 million, supply is way below sales levels for the first half of the year. But as soon as we go over $1 million the position is reversed. And the total number of homes for sale under $1 million is just 23.
Next, Swampscott:
A similar story here, except that the supply equation reverses at $700,000 – with one exception. Note that from $1-1.5 million there are fewer homes for sale than have sold so far in 2017.
Finally, let’s look at the 34 cities and towns of Essex County overall:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
And in more detail:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Sellers are in control up to $700,000; the market is in balance between $700,000 and $1 million; and it is a buyers’ market over $1 million.
Comment
One of the surprises of the market this year has been how weak demand has been for higher-priced homes. Logically, with the market so active under $1 million, and macro-economic factors – the stock market at record levels, expectations/hopes of tax cuts coming – positive, one would expect to see sellers trading up. And that is especially true in a town Marblehead, a town people are reluctant to leave – meaning most sellers plan to buy another house in town.
The optimistic view is that this may be a timing issue and that sales of higher priced houses will soon pick up. But clearly this is an excellent time to trade up to a higher priced home – and you don’t have to compete with 90 groups at Marblehead Open House.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Marblehead: Sold and For Sale by price
We know there is a chronic shortage of houses for sale generally, but the situation varies greatly by price. Look at this chart, which shows the number of homes in Marblehead sold so far in 2017 or where the sale is pending, versus the number currently available for sale:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
As a very rough guide, the number of sales and pending sales in early May will equal actual sales for the first half of the year.
A market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when the number of homes for sale equals about 6 months of sales. If that were the case in Marblehead, the two columns – for sales/pending sales and homes for sale – would be the same size.
Which they are not. At all price points up to $1 million, sales/pending sales greatly exceed supply. And at all price points above $1 million, supply greatly exceeds sales/pending sales.
One of the surprises of the market this year has been how weak demand has been for higher-priced homes. Logically, with the market so active under $1 million, and macro-economic factors – the stock market at record levels, expectations/hopes of tax cuts coming – positive, one would expect to see sellers trading up. And that is especially true in Marblehead, a town people are reluctant to leave – meaning most sellers plan to buy another house in town.
The optimistic view is that this may be a timing issue and that sales of higher priced houses will soon pick up. But clearly this is an excellent time to trade up to a higher priced home – and you don’t have to compete with 90 groups at Marblehead Open House.
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Marblehead: what is available by price
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Marblehead is down by more than 25% from last year, dropping from 75 to 54. The chart below shows the supply at different price points for the last 3 years on this date:
Source: MLS
The lowest-priced home for sale is listed at $559,000 and there are just 4 homes for sale below the median price for 2016 of $620,000.
Of the 54 SFHs currently available only 20 are listed below $1 million versus 34 listed over $1 million.
As a buyer it may be worth checking out the houses that have been on the market for a while and taking another look.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
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