Housing Inventory and Supply: a town by town guide
This report has two parts. In the first I show the inventory of Single Family Homes SFH) for sale compared with this time for the last two years; and in the second I show how many months supply those numbers represent.
Overall in Essex County the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale as we head into Labor Day weekend is down 21% from a year ago and down 28% from this time in 2014. The numbers for Massachusetts overall are very similar: down 21% from last year and down 26% from 2014.
The supply, based upon sales for the last 12 months (L12M), in Essex County, has dropped from 4.2 months in 2014 to 3.6 months in 2015 and to just 2.6 months currently. Massachusetts overall has seen a similar drop from 5.1 months to 4.5 and now just 3.2 months. Bear in mind that a housing market is generally deemed to be in balance between buyers and sellers when supply is at 6 months. When the inventory is less than 6 months, as now, it is called a sellers’ market.Like now.
Inventory
Just 4 towns – Beverly, Essex, Lynnfield and Topsfield – show an increase in supply, mostly insignificant, compared with a year ago, and only 3 – Andover, Middleton and Newburyport – an increase from 2014.
Supply
I have shown two numbers for each town for each year: supply based upon the last 3 months (L3M) sales and on the L12M. The market in Massachusetts is seasonal: June-August typically sees the highest number of sales in any 3 month period, so using that number alone would give the impression of tighter supply than using the L12M. Nevertheless, L3M does give a very current picture of supply.
Comment
There is a saying that all real estate is local. While I agree with that when it comes to buying a particular house, it is also valuable to know and understand what is happening in the broader market. If, for example, you are looking to buy in a town with seemingly adequate supply, it is important to know that throughout Essex County and Massachusetts supply is very tight, and therefore ask questions about the market in the town with higher supply. Thee may well be a reason, and knowing the broader trend will alert you to ask questions.
Overall, as I have been saying for some time now, the economy is doing ok, mortgage rates are close to record lows, inventory is low – all the ingredients for a continuing steadily improving housing market. It will be interesting to see if the forthcoming elections cause some slow down in the next couple of months.
Here is a spreadsheet Essex_For Sale_Supply_Sep_2_2014_2015_2016_towns which combines both the inventory and supply numbers for each town. I can provide a more detailed analysis of any town on request.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Essex County Median Prices: town by town guide
Mid-year is a good time to look at Essex County Median Prices for Single Family Homes (SFH) on a town by town basis.
Guide to the tables
The 34 cities and towns are listed in alphabetical order. The first two columns show the median prices for the first half of 2005 and 2006 – I show both years because the peak year was 2005 in some towns and 2006 in others.
The next two columns show the median price for 2015 and 2016, followed by the percentage change of 2016 over 2015. Following that is a column showing the change in 2016 from the pre-great recession high, whether it be 2005 or 2006.
And finally, I show sales for the two years. This is important because the smaller the number of sales the greater the chance that median prices will show bigger swings.
Note that the median price for the whole of Massachusetts increased 3% and for Essex County 4% compared with 2015, while some towns with a very small number of sales often saw much bigger increases – and indeed decreases.
As always, having the numbers is a start – it is the interpretation that is important. I can produce, on request, for any of these towns the same detailed analysis I publish regularly on Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Beverly and Lynn. (more…)
Essex County Mid-Year Review: steady progress, low supply
Sales of Single Family Homes (SFHs) in Essex County in the first half of 2016 jumped 14% from a year ago and were close to the record levels of 2002-05. Meanwhile, the median price* increased nearly 4% to a new high for the first half of the year of $400,000, the first time we have seen a six month median price reach that level.
While condo sales also increased 14% year on year, they remain way below the peak levels of 2004-06, but the median price also increased 4% to a new high of $259,000.
*In all my reports and analyses, median price calculations exclude distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales, which typically occur at a significant discount to the normal market. When I report on “sales” I refer to all sales, including distressed ones. (more…)
Mid-Year housing inventory down sharply
Preliminary data (a lot of sales scheduled to close by 6/30 have not been entered into MLS as yet) suggest that sales were up 14-20% in Essex County and Massachusetts in the first half of the year, and median price up 3-4%. The following table shows current inventory for local towns, Essex County and Massachusetts as a whole. The highlighted last column shows the change from a year ago. There are some huge changes, all showing lower inventory.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Essex Coastal Scenic Byway: Marblehead
You may have noticed these Essex Coastal Scenic Byway signs which have appeared around town recently:
This initiative was led by Essex Heritage and this is the description from its website: (more…)
Housing Inventory today, by price and town, versus a year ago
This article compares today’s inventory, by price, compared with that of a year ago.We are now past the vagaries of winter weather and the dates of Easter and Passover, thus making the comparisons like for like for probably the first time this year. I will look first at Essex County and Massachusetts for the big picture, followed by Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Beverly and Lynn, adding comments where appropriate.
Overall, the story is of a decline in inventory at lower price levels and an increase at higher price points, a trend consistent with a rising market.
Massachusetts and Essex County
Overall inventory is down in the entire State by 9% for SFHs and 6% for condos; in Essex County the decline is 10% for SFHs and 12% for condos. But…. there is a marked difference between supply under $500,000 and above that figure, with large declines in supply below $500,000 and increases above that figure, particularly at the top end.
Marblehead
While Marblehead is one of the few towns to show an increase in inventory over 2015, it still shows a sharp drop from the 92 and 100 SFHs for sales on this date in 2013 and 2014, while condo inventory is more in line with numbers from those years. The increase in SFH inventory is concentrated in the $750,000 – $999,999 and over $2 million brackets for SFHs and, rather surprisingly, in condos under $250,000.
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Swampscott
The story in Swampscott continues to be the incredibly low level of supply, most markedly for SFHs below $500,000, where the number available has collapsed from 25 to just 3. And there are just 5 condos for sale in the entire town.
Salem
While overall supply in Salem is down just slightly from last year, here again we see declines in inventory at the lower price levels:
Beverly
The total number of SFHs for sale is much the same as last year but the mix has changed, with a huge drop under $400,000 and increases in most of the higher ranges. Condos for sale under $250,000 plunged from 16 to just 4.
Lynn
The decline is most pronounced in SFHs under $300,000 where supply has more than halved from 48 to 23.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Essex County Q1 Housing Market by the Numbers
This report gives a picture of the Essex County Q1 Housing Market by the Numbers, followed by a snapshot of current inventory compared with a year ago, a comparison which shows a significant shift by price.
Median Prices and Sales
Sales of SFHs increased sharply from the levels of the last few years and were back to levels last seen in 2005. Condo sales were also well up, although they remain well below the levels of 2004-2007. The median prices for both SFHs and condos edged down slightly.
Always remember that quarterly numbers can be – and frequently are – volatile, especially during the winter months. We will get a truer picture of the underlying market trends when we get the numbers for the first half of the year.
Current Inventory
The changing housing market is well illustrated by the change in inventory compared with a year ago. The median SFH price in Essex County is a little below $400,000. A year ago there were 450 houses available below this level, but today there are just 278, a drop of 38%. Above $750,000, there is an increase in supply.
A similar pattern is seen in condos, where the median price is around $250,000. The supply of condos for sale only increases above $500,000.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Essex County inventory: where have all the sellers gone?
During this mild winter, buyers have remained active, taking advantage of historically low mortgage rates, but Essex County inventory remains low.
While the end of February is low season for real estate sales in New England, some of the changes in inventory at different price levels are startling. I include a chart showing the overall numbers, followed by a breakdown by price, for both SFHs and Condos.
Single Family Homes (SFH)
Condos
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Which broker will find the buyer for my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Essex County 2015 Housing Market Review
The SFH market in Essex County continued its recovery in 2015, with the median price increasing by 3% and sales by 10%. Both numbers are just below their prior peaks.
Median Price
The median price increased 3% in 2015 and is now just 1% below the 2005 peak.
There are always quarterly fluctuations, but for the seventh year in a row the highest median price was recorded in Q3.
Sales
Sales have bounced almost 50% from their great recession lows and were almost back to the 2004 peak.
Summary
2015 was another solid year in the recovery of the housing market in Essex County. With the Massachusetts economy strong – and the pending move of GE to Boston can only help – and mortgage rates still below 4%, the outlook for 2016 is for another year of increasing prices, which will very likely reach a new high.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
GE is coming: beat the rush
Last weekend, after the announcement that GE is moving its corporate HQ to Boston, the first GE executives were spotted house-hunting in Marblehead.
For the real estate market in and around Boston the significance is not just the arrival of 800 GE employees but also the fact that GE is expected to be a draw for other technology companies, particularly those in the “Internet of Things”.
Why is GE moving to Boston?
“GE aspires to be the most competitive company in the world,” said GE Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt. “We want to be at the center of an ecosystem that shares our aspirations. Greater Boston is home to 55 colleges and universities. Massachusetts spends more on research & development than any other region in the world, and Boston attracts a diverse, technologically-fluent workforce focused on solving challenges for the world. We are excited to bring our headquarters to this dynamic and creative city.” (more…)
Essex County property tax rates for 2016
Essex County property tax rates for 2016 have been announced. Here is a map (so that you can compare tax rates in neighboring towns) and the changes over the last two years, followed by my comments:
How property tax rates are calculated
I wrote How your property taxes are calculated earlier this year.
There are two main points to understand:
The dollar amount raised by property taxes is based on a simple formula: the dollar levy for the previous year plus 2 1/2% (Prop 2 1/2), plus any new growth (e.g. new construction), plus any voter-approved overrides or debt exclusions.
The tax rate is then calculated by dividing the dollar amount by the Assessed Value of all property. For FY2016 (July 2015-June 2016) Assessed Values are based upon sales during 2014.
Thus, the dollar amount will always increase from year to year, but the tax rate depends upon what happens to Assessed Values (AV). Here are examples. All assume a 4% increase in the dollar amount to be raised from taxes.The variable is the change in the AV. In the years when AVs were declining, tax rates rose. As AVs are now increasing we should expect to see tax rates flat to down.
Tax rate changes in 2016
Of the 34 cities and towns in Essex County, 14 have announced decreases in their tax rate while 20 have had increases approved.The median change was an increase of just 0.2%.
Of the decreases 7 were 1% or less, while the largest decrease was the 6.8% in West Newbury.
While there were more increases, 9 were 1% or less. The largest increase by far was the 9.9% in Ipswich.
Outlook for 2017
With one week left in the year it seems the median price of a Single Family Home in Essex County will increase about 3.5% in 2015, and it is 2015 sales which will be used in calculating FY2017 tax rates. Since the dollar amount to be raised from property taxes will naturally continue to increase, at this stage it seems reasonable to expect little overall change in tax rates for FY2017, but there will, as always, be fluctuations from town to town.
I am publishing below a downloadable spreadsheet showing tax rates by city and town for the last 5 years.
Essex County Residential tax rates_2012_16_
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Which broker will find the buyer for my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Sales and home prices rise in Essex County
In the first 11 months of 2015 sales and prices of both SFHs and Condos in Essex County and Massachusetts have increased at generally similar rates:
The sales increase for condos seems to be the one out of sync between Essex County and the State as a whole so I have looked at the breakdown by County, showing that sales were flat in the two largest Counties:
Overall, these numbers confirm the reports all year of a market that has returned to the normal condition of gently rising prices. (more…)
El Nino is good news for housing market
Back in July I wrote No snow this winter, a somewhat optimistic comment about the effect El Nino might have on our weather this winter.
Yesterday I read El Nino seen warming Us economy on Bloomberg, with economists quoted as saying “a milder winter supports growth in housing and consumer spending”.
The last two winters have seen unusually cold (think polar vortex) and snowy weather, and in both years the real estate market in New England got off to a slow start. With the economy growing strongly in Massachusetts (forecasts put 2015 growth at 5%), 2016 could be a very good year in the housing market, with the possibility that the gains seen in Metro Boston in the last few years will extend further outwards. (more…)
Time to think outside Marblehead Neck
You would like to buy a house on the water, but you have noticed the amount of traffic on the Neck and are concerned with exposure to storms.
So what to do?
The answer is: think outside the Neck.
Read Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfromt properties and you may be surprised to learn that between Preston Beach and Beach Street there are 32 homes (and likely a few more when the FY2016 assessments are announced in December as this area is appreciating) with an Assessed Value over $2 million.
Two of these properties are currently for sale and details can be seen by clicking on 11 Crown Way and 2-4 Coolidge Road.
Crown Way has an Open House today 1-3 and both house will be open next Sunday (if not sold before then).
Essex County Condo market Q3 review
After steady increases in the last few years the median price* of a condo in Essex County in Q3 was up only slightly from a year ago and was unchanged for the year to date through September:
(more…)
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