Accepted Offers remain strong
The number of Accepted Offers (AO) for SFHs received in Essex County last week continued to increase to another 2020 high of 184.
This is the chart I post each week showing the weekly numbers compared with 2019. Note that Holy Week was week 14 in 2020 and week 16 in 2019. To make it easier to read I have started the chart at week 9 (March 6, 2020; March 8, 2019):
And this is the percentage change compared with the same week in 2019.
The spike in week 16 ( April 24) was a result of the timing of Holy Week, while the increase in week 21 (May 29) compared with a strangely low number in 2019. More relevantly, the improving trend is clear. A better indicator is that the 4-week average of 164 is just 5% lower than the 173 in 2019.
And… look at this table:
Inventory is down more than 40% from last year – and has been running 30-40% below last year’s numbers all year – yet the number of Accepted Offers recently has been quite close to last year’s levels,
Comment
The real estate industry – professionals involved in transactions, as well as buyer and sellers – has adapted to the COVID-19 world. Buyers are out there, inventory remains low (read Inventory plummets while demand increases) and bidding wars are back in earnest. In fact, with inventory down 40% YOY it is clear that properties are now selling more quickly than they were a year ago.
Thus buyers need to have all their ducks in a row – most importantly, a current pre-approval letter or proof of funds – before making an offer.
Also, bear in mind that some sellers – a diminishing number as confidence in the measures now in place for viewing become established- are requesting that their properties not be listed in MLS, so if you are checking on Zillow you might not be seeing all that is available.: you need to speak to a real estate agent.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates are rising – and that’s good news
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Accepted Offers held back by shortage of inventory
The number of Accepted Offers (AO) for SFHs received in Essex County last week increased modestly to a 2020 high of 162.
This is the chart I post each week showing the weekly numbers compared with 2019. Note that Holy Week was week 14 in 2020 and week 16 in 2019. To make it easier to read I have started the chart at week 9 (March 6, 2020; March 8, 2019):
And this is the percentage change compared with the same week in 2019.
The jump in week 16 ( April 24) was a result of the timing of Holy Week, while the increase in the last week compared with a strangely low number in 2019. More relevantly, the improving trend is clear. A better indicator is that the 3-week average of 157 is just 6% lower than the 67 in 2019.
And… look at this table:
Inventory is down more than 40% from last year – and has been running 30-40% below last year’s numbers all year – yet the number of Accepted Offers recently has been quite close to last year’s levels,
Comment
The real estate industry – professionals involved in transactions, as well as buyer and sellers – has adapted to the COVID-19 world. Buyers are out there, inventory remains low (read Inventory plummets while demand increases) and bidding wars are back. In fact, with inventory down 40% YOY it is clear that properties are now selling more quickly than they were a year ago.
Thus buyers need to have all their ducks in line – most importantly, a current pre-approval letter – before considering making an offer.
Also, bear in mind that some sellers – a diminishing number as confidence in the measures now in place for viewing become established- are requesting that their properties not be listed in MLS, so if you are checking on Zillow you might not be seeing all that is available.: you need to speak to a real estate agent.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates hit all-time low – again
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Inventory plummets while demand increases
In summary, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) receiving offers in the last three weeks has been nearly back to 2019 levels, while inventory is down 35-40%, indicating that homes are selling very quickly.
Single Family Homes
After years of decline, the number of SFHs for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. The decline then resumed, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2017. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing until June).
The second chart shows the decline YOY each month from July to December in 2019.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline:
These two charts show numbers since 2017 for January to June, and July to December.
The first chart shows the decline in 2020 YOY, while in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year.
The second chart shows inventory continuing to increase in 2019 YOY in July and August, steadying in September, and then resuming the decline in October.
Supply
Once again, the pattern of supply is consistent: very scarce at lower price levels and abundant at the top end:
Comment
Housing statistics for properties sold are a rear-view mirror, telling us what happened 6-8 weeks earlier.
For relevant statistics about the current level of market activity I look at both inventory (which I report monthly in this article) and the number of houses receiving Accepted Offers week by week, a number I report at the beginning of the week for the prior week. (Here is a link to the most recent report Accepted Offers held back by shortage of inventory).
After dropping by 50% YoY in early April, the number of Accepted Offers is now running close to 2019 levels. We are seeing increased demand from people wanting to move out of Boston in addition to the demand that was already there. There is a new protocol in place for buying and selling properties, one with which both sides are increasingly comfortable with.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates hit all-time low – again
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Accepted Offers remain high despite low Inventory
The number of Accepted Offers (AO) for SFHs received in Essex County last week increased modestly to a 2020 high of 159.
This is the chart I post each week showing the weekly numbers compared with 2019. Note that Holy Week was week 14 in 2020 and week 16 in 2019. To make it easier to read I have started the chart at week 9 (March 6, 2020; March 8, 2019):
And this is the percentage change compared with the same week in 2019.
Ignoring the spike in week 16 as a result of the timing of Holy Week, the trend shows that the percentage decline slowed from around 50% to under 10% before increasing to 20% last week. Note, however, that the corresponding week in 2019 saw a spike compared with the weeks before and after it.
And… look at this table:
Inventory is down more than 40% from last year – and has been running 30-40% below last year’s numbers all year – yet the number of Accepted Offers recently has been quite close to last year’s levels,
Comment
The real estate industry – professionals involved in transactions, as well as buyer and sellers – has adapted to the COVID-19 world. Buyers are out there, inventory remains low and bidding wars are back. In fact, with inventory down 40% YOY it is clear that properties are now selling more quickly than they were a year ago. Thus buyers need to have all their ducks in line – most importantly, a current pre-approval letter – before considering making an offer.
Also, bear in mind that some sellers – a diminishing number as confidence in the measures now in place for viewing become established- are requesting that their properties not be listed in MLS, so if you are checking on Zillow you might not be seeing all that is available.: you need to speak to a real estate agent.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Accepted Offers jump to 2020 high
The number of Accepted Offers (AO) for SFHs received in Essex County in the latest week jumped sharply to 151, compared with the prior high for 2020 in March of 125 and more than double the number of early April.
This is the chart I post each week showing the weekly numbers compared with 2019. Note that Holy Week was week 14 in 2020 and week 16 in 2019:
And this is the percentage change compared with the same week in 2019.
Ignoring the spike in week 16 as a result of the timing of Holy Week, the trend is clear as the percentage decline has slowed from around 50% to under 10%.
Comment
The real estate industry – professionals involved in transactions, as well as buyer and sellers – has adapted to the COVID-19 world. Buyers are out there, inventory remains low and bidding wars are back.
Also, bear in mind that some sellers are requesting that their properties not be listed in MLS, so if you are checking on Zillow you might not be seeing all that is available.: you need to speak to a real estate agent.
*Numbers in this report were updated on May 20
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
The number of Accepted Offers is increasing
While still running well below the levels of last year (see chart below), the number of Accepted Offers (AO) for SFHs received in Essex County in the latest week shows increasing activity. In fact the number of AOs (with the probability that a few more will be reported tomorrow) last week was close to the number back in March when active\ivity was strong.
This is the chart I post each week showing the Year-on-Year increase compared with 2019. Note that Holy Week was week 14 in 2020 and week 16 in 2019:
And this is the percentage change compared with the same week in 2019.
Ignoring the spike in week 16 as a result of the timing of Holy Week, the improving trend is clear as the percentage decline has slowed from around 50% to just over 30%.
Comment
The real estate industry – professionals involved in transactions, as well as buyer and sellers – has adapted to the COVID-19 world. Buyers are out there and inventory remains low. Also, bear in mind that some sellers are requesting that their properties are not listed in MLS, so if you are checking on Zillow you might not be seeing all that is available.: you need to speak to a real estate agent.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Accepted offers are plateauing
The number of Accepted Offers for SFHs received in Essex County in the latest week suggests that sales activity is reasonably steady, averaging 84 per week over the last 5 weeks, which is 40-50% below last year’s levels::
This is the chart I post each week showing the Year-on-Year increase compared with 2019. Note that Holy Week was week 14 in 2010 and week 16 in 2019:
Comment
The real estate industry – professionals involved in transactions, as well as buyer and sellers – has adapted to the COVID-19 world. Buyers are out there and inventory remains low as some sellers delay listing.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
The ever shrinking Housing Inventory
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. The decline then resumed, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2017. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing until June).
Currently available properties
In the continuing absence of Open Houses, I am replacing the normal Open House post with one showing details of all houses and condos currently available for sale. Different arrangements are being made for viewing so please contact me to see what is possible. Properties are still selling in this environment.
Click on these links for full details of each of the properties: (more…)
Accepted offers are picking up
Preliminary numbers show a pick up in the number of Accepted Offers for SFHs received in Essex County in the latest week*:
This is the chart I post each week showing the Year-on-Year increase compared with 2019. Note that this week in 2019 was Holy Week, which was the week ending April 12 this year.
*updated April 28
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Accepted Offers see small Uptick
The number of of properties receiving Accepted Offers – the best indicator of current market activity – has shown a modest increase since the low recorded in the week ending April 3.
This chart compares the number of SFHs receiving accepted offers week by week in 2019 and 2020 in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County (I have used Essex County to get a large enough sample to be significant.)
For the first 9 weeks of the year – through March 6, 2020 (March 8, 2019) – the number of accepted offers was slightly ahead: averaging 91 vs 87 in 2019.
The number of accepted offers then started to drop: by 18, 23, 27, 71, 88 and this past week by 74. But the actual number of Accepted Offers has seen a small increase from 68 to 79 and 82 in the last two weeks.
The curve is flattening
We have learned to be on the lookout for the flattening of the curve with COVID_19 so let’s apply the same technique to the housing market. This chart shows the percentage change each week compared with 2019:
This is the change in the last few weeks:
Outlook
April traditionally sees an uptick in market activity – the “spring market”. In 2019, the weekly average – even allowing for the drop in Holy Week – in the four full weeks of April was 146 accepted offers.
Adding to the economic uncertainty is the challenge of viewing properties, but we are rapidly developing a new norm for the process as buyers and sellers adapt.
It seems likely that the number of accepted offers will continue to trail below last year’s levels, but properties are still selling. It will be instructive to see if the level of activity picks up as cash from the many stimulus programs starts to arrive.
While activity will drop, it is not clear what the impact will be on prices. I suspect that will be a case-by-case situation depending upon the specific circumstances of sellers. Essex County is largely a first home – meaning primary residence – market. Contrast that with Naples, Florida – a second or vacation home market, where 65% of properties which went under agreement in the last 3 weeks have come back on to the market.
As with the economy at large, the housing market entered this shutdown from a position of strength: a chronic shortage of supply and low mortgage rates. The best outcome might be a resetting of the supply/demand imbalance creating a more stable market.
A Calmer Mortgage Market
Recession and Recovery
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Accepted Offers: the Curve is Flattening
The best current indicator of market activity I can find is the number of properties receiving accepted offers week by week.
This chart compares the number of SFHs receiving accepted offers week by week in 2019 and 2020 in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County (I have used Essex County to get a large enough sample to be significant.)
For the first 9 weeks of the year – through March 6, 2020 (March 8, 2019) – the number of accepted offers was slightly ahead in 2020: averaging 91 vs 87 in 2019.
The number of accepted offers then started to drop: by 17, 19, 25, 67 and this past week by 87. But the actual number of Accepted Offers saw a small increase from the previous week.
The curve is flattening
We have learned to be on the lookout for the flattening of the curve with COVID_19 so let’s apply the same technique to the housing market. This chart shows the percentage change each week compared with 2019:
This is the change in the last few weeks:
While this last week showed a slightly larger decline than the week before, the pace of decline has slowed – or flattened. Bear in mind, this was Holy Week and if you look at the first table, week 16 in 2019 – which was Holy Week – saw an almost 40% drop from the week before.
Outlook
April traditionally sees an uptick in market activity – the “spring market”. In 2019, the weekly average – even allowing for the drop in Holy Week – in the four full weeks of April was 146 accepted offers.
Adding to the economic uncertainty is the challenge of viewing properties, but we are rapidly developing a new norm for the process as buyers and sellers adapt.
It seems likely that the number of accepted offers will continue to trail below last year’s levels, but properties are still selling. It will be instructive to see if the level of activity picks up as cash from the many stimulus programs starts to arrive.
While activity will drop, it is not clear what the impact will be on prices. I suspect that will be a case-by-case situation depending upon the specific circumstances of sellers. Essex County is largely a first home – meaning primary residence – market. Contrast that with Naples, Florida – a second or vacation home market, where 65% of properties which went under agreement in the last 3 weeks have come back on to the market.
As with the economy at large, the housing market entered this shutdown from a position of strength: a chronic shortage of supply and low mortgage rates. The best outcome might be a resetting of the supply/demand imbalance creating a stable market.
A Calmer Mortgage Market
Recession and Recovery
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Accepted Offers Plummet
The best current indicator of market activity I can find is the number of properties receiving accepted offers week by week. With all the uncertainties currently, it would be reasonable to expect the pace of sales to drop. Let’s see if that has happened.
This chart compares the number of SFHs receiving accepted offers week by week in 2019 and 2020 in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County (I have used Essex County to get a large enough sample to be significant.)
2019: week 1 is week ending January 11; week 13 ending April 5
2020: week 1 is week ending January 10; week 13 ending April 3
For the first 9 weeks of the year – through March 6, 2020 (March 8, 2019) – the number of accepted offers was slightly ahead in 2020: averaging 91 vs 87 in 2019.
The number of accepted offers then started to drop: by 15, then 19, then 21 – and finally this past week by 72 (there may be a few late reports of offers accepted last Friday in which case I will update the numbers reported here.)
Outlook
April traditionally sees an uptick in market activity – the “spring market”. In 2019, the weekly average – even allowing for a drop in Holy Week (week 16)- in the four full weeks of April was 146 accepted offers.
Adding to the economic uncertainty is the challenge of viewing properties. It seems likely, therefore, that the number of accepted offers will continue to trail well below last year’s levels. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that it took until this last week for the drop to start in earnest.
While activity will drop, it is not clear what the impact will be on prices. I suspect that will be a case-by-case situation depending upon the specific circumstances of sellers.
As with the economy at large, the housing market entered this shutdown from a position of strength: a chronic shortage of supply and low mortgage rates. The best outcome might be a resetting of the supply/demand imbalance creating a stable market.
A Calmer Mortgage Market
Recession and Recovery
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Properties Currently Available for Sale
As there are no Open Houses currently, I am replacing the normal Open House post with one showing details of all houses and condos currently available for sale. Different arrangements are being made for viewing – some are video only – so please contact me to see what is possible. (more…)
Housing market inventory shrinks even further in March
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2017. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing until June).
The second chart shows the decline YOY each month from July to December in 2019.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline, which has also accelerated in recent months:
These two charts show numbers since 2017 for January to June, and July to December.
The first chart shows the decline in 2020 YOY, while in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year.
The second chart shows inventory continuing to increase in 2019 YOY in July and August, steadying in September, and then resuming the decline in October.
Comment
While the overall supply of SFHs in Essex County remains very low at just 1.5 months ( a market has traditionally been considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the position varies widely by price, as shown in this table:
While inventory early in the year is normally low, a feature of 2020 so far is the speed at which new listings, if priced appropriately, are selling. If you are thinking of selling, now is a really good time.
The conclusion remains that the market remains in favour of sellers right up to $1.5 million, but above that dramatically swings in favour of buyers.
Mortgage rates after the collapse of bond yields
Will house prices continue to rise in 2020?
Are You Thinking of Selling in 2020?
Swampscott homeowners: now is a GREAT time to sell
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
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