Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics: Q3 GDP growth
This was the title of the first report I wrote for the Marblehead Reporter back in 2008.*
The phrase came to my mind when I saw these two headlines on Thursday:
“US GDP surged a record 33% in the 3rd quarter as the economy reopened, roughly double the next-biggest jump.” (Business Insider)
“U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3, better than expected” (CNBC)
Wow! What amazing growth! As CNBC says – and they are financial experts – the economy is booming!
But wait a minute….. 22.6 million people were claiming unemployment benefits when the Government last reported numbers on October 10, compared with just 1.4 million a year ago. How does that square with a booming economy? (more…)
Gorilla invades Marblehead
Tom Saltsman, the Marblehead architect, is famous for creating larger-than-life Halloween installations at his home, 32 Pleasant Street. This year his creation is Kong, a 22 ft tall gorilla. The big ape is crouching in front of Saltsman’s garage. When he awakes this weekend, Kong will make movements and noises. To maintain suspense, Saltsman didn’t want to reveal any more details.
Open Houses Sunday October 25
As always, rather more Open Houses are scheduled for today than were shown when the list was published yesterday: (more…)
Marblehead Q3 2020 Housing Market Summary
[Click here to download a copy of this report]
In Q3, the first full quarter of sales post the COVID-19 slowdown in March and April, the median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold jumped to $846,000, more than $100,000 higher than any prior quarter. The median price in the first 9 months of the year increased 5.3% to a new record of $750,000.
Sales were steady as was the median Days to Offer (DTO) at 12. (more…)
Salem Q3 Housing Market Report
[Click here to download a copy of this report]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of SFHs sold in the first 9 months of 2020 (YTD Q3) jumped 13.3% to $490,000. Sales eased a little from last year’s record level, and the median Days to Offer (DTO) was just 7 days. (more…)
Essex County Q3 2020 Housing Market Report
[Click here to download a copy of this report]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of SFHs sold in the first 9 months of 2020 (YTD Q3) jumped 11.8% to $532,500, comfortable breaking through the $500,000 level for the first time. Every one of the 34 cities and towns saw a Year on Year increase. Most of the sales decline occurred in the COVID-19 impacted Q2. The median Days to Offer (DTO) was just 10 days. (more…)
Beverly Q3 Housing Market Report
[Click here to download a copy of this report]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of SFHs sold in the first 9 months of 2020 (YTD Q3) increased 5.8% to $550,000. Sales were in line with 2019 and the median Days to Offer (DTO) was just 7 days. (more…)
Latest list of properties for sale
New listings are seeing tremendous competition, and inventory is way down compared with a year ago. Buyers need to look at the list of all available properties as sometimes properties get overlooked for no obvious reason. Here is the summary of current inventory:
Are you thinking of selling in Marblehead?
With prices at record levels (the median price of the SFHs sold in Q3 was a staggering $846,000) and inventory at record lows, now is a great time to sell.
Here is the inventory by price compared with a year ago:
With buyers still actively seeking homes, the shortage of inventory makes this an ideal time to sell.
Team Harborside is the leading North Shore group. Please contact me to arrange a meeting with our team to discuss the options for selling your property.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
New Listings mid-week October 7
Here are the latest New Listing.
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings
How does inventory compare with a year ago?
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Open Houses Sunday October 4
As usual, rather more Open Houses are scheduled for today than were shown when the list was published yesterday:
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open House
Lynn Open Houses
Housing Inventory chronically low while demand is strong
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
No improvement in Inventory in October
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) in Essex County receiving offers recovered strongly from May onwards, and for the last four months has been ahead of 2019. YTD numbers are now very similar to 2019 levels. The numbers would have been even stronger in recent months but for the chronic shortage of supply.
Single Family Homes
After years of decline, the number of SFHs for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. The decline then resumed, and has accelerated in 2020:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2018. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year).
The second chart shows the decline YOY each month since July 2019 (note the decline both from 2018 to 2019 and again, much sharper, from 2019 to 2020).
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline which has accelerated somewhat in 2020:
These two charts show numbers since 2018 for January to June, and July to December.
The first chart shows the decline in 2020 YOY, while in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year.
The second chart shows inventory has been declining since October 2019, with the rate of decline accelerating in 2020..
Supply
While the overall inventory of 1 month of supply remains well below the 6 months traditionally regarded as representing a market in equilibrium, supply as usual becomes freer the higher the price bracket.
Comment
The market in recent months has been characterised by the twin challenges of reduced inventory and increased demand, with buyers from Boston adding to local demand; and both aided by record low mortgage rates.
We are back to the most basic economic equation: when demand exceeds supply, prices rise. In housing, that often results in bidding wars, as we are seeing frequently now. My Q3 market reports will be published shortly and will make interesting reading.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Current list of available properties
New listings are seeing tremendous competition, and inventory is way down compared with a year ago. Buyers need to look at the list of all available properties as sometimes properties get overlooked for no obvious reason. Here is the summary of current inventory:
Click on these links for full details:
Marblehead SFHs For Sale
Marblehead Condos For Sale
Swampscott SFH For Sale
Swampscott Condos For Sale
Salem SFH For Sale
Salem Condos For Sale
Beverly SFHs For Sale
Beverly Condos For Sale
Lynn SFHs For Sale
Lynn Condos For Sale
Inventory chronically low; demand booming
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
New Listings mid-week September 30
These are the latest New Listing.
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings
How does inventory compare with a year ago?
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Is the market slowing down?
Labor Day is gone, COVID-19 infections are rising again in many places, and the Election is just 37 days away, so it would not be a surprise if we saw signs of the market slowing down.
The number of SFHs receiving Accepted Offers each week is a statistic which tracks real-time activity (versus reported sales which reflect activity some 6-8 weeks earlier). Here is a (rather busy) chart comparing the number of AOs each week in 2020 compared with the same week in 2019.
What this shows is that the number of AOs has remained at a high level throughout the summer and has continued even after Labor Day. The apparent drop in the most recent week reflects the fact that many Offers are not recorded in MLS until after the weekend, so I will update this chart on Monday evening.*
That the level of AOs is so high is quite remarkable considering the low level of inventory:
Is the market is slowing down? Not according to the data.
* the numbers were little changed
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
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