Marblehead and Swampscott November sales still strong
November sales in Marblehead and Swampscott continue to show strength.
Marblehead
10 of 19 SFH sales in November were at or over List price, with 2 sales at 23% and 32% over list. Just 1 of the 4 Condo sales was over List.
Swampscott
6 of 10 SFH sales in October were at or over List price (5 over the Original List Price), while 5 of the 6 Condo sales were at or above List.
Comment
While sales continue to be strong – and often strongly above list price – it is interesting to note that 8 of the 14 SFHs currently available for sale in Marblehead have had price reductions, while 4 of the 9 in Swampscott have also seen price cuts – or “adjustments” or “improvements” as we like to call them.
Note also that in November, all but 1 of the sales where the price had been reduced subsequently took place below the reduced price.
The sample is small, but the implication is clear: over-pricing in this market leads to a lower sale price.
Marblehead, Swampscott October sales still mostly above List Price
With all the chatter about home prices nationally declining or about to decline, October sales in Marblehead and Swampscott seem to be saying NIMBY – not here please.
Marblehead
12 of 19 SFH sales in October were at or over List price, with 2 sales at 35% and 36% over list:
Swampscott
5 of 10 SFH sales in October were at or over List pice
Comment
While sales continue to be strong – and often strongly above list price – it is interesting to note that 8 of the 19 SFHs currently available for sale in Marblehead have had price reductions, while 4 of the 11 in Swampscott have also seen price cuts – or “adjustments’ or “improvements” as we like to call them.
Notably also, the inventory of SFHs for sale in Essex County has not seen the usual seasonal decline so far, an indication perhaps of the consequences of the doubling in mortgage rates this year, with buyers reluctant to pay the much higher rates – and sellers reluctant to move and surrender their low-rate mortgage.
As we approach Thanksgiving and the holiday season, I suspect both buyers and sellers – unless their need is urgent – may decide to focus on planning time with their families and friends – and then take another look at the housing market in 2023. (more…)
November Inventory stays high
Inventory numbers usually drop as we head towards the winter months, but this year the level of SFH inventory has remained steady so far.
Single Family Homes
Condos
Condo inventory has also been steady, although this brings the level back only close to last year’s level.
New Listings after Halloween
New Listings mid-week November 2:
Click on these links details: (more…)
Marblehead Q3 2022 Report: Median Price tops $1 million
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in Marblehead in the Third Quarter (Q3 2022) topped $1 million for the first time, while for the first 9 months of 2022 (YTD Q3) it increased to $925,000. The median condo price increased 7% YTD Q3 to $552,000.
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in Marblehead in the first 9 months of 2022 (YTD Q3 2022) increased 9% to $925,000 on the smallest number of sales since 2011.
As the percentage of sales over $1 million increased from 34% YTD in 2021 to 44% YTD in 2022, so the median price moved closer to $1 million – and in fact exceeded that figure in Q3. Sales over $1 million YTD increased from 56 to 66, with 14 sales over $2 million vs 12 YTD in 2021. (more…)
Swampscott Q3 2022 Report: Median Price hits $800,000
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in Swampscott in the first 9 months of 2022 (YTD Q3) increased 12% to $800,000. The median condo price also increased 12% YTD Q3 to $447,500.
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in Swampscott in the first 9 months of 2022 (YTD Q3 2022) increased 12% to $800,000 on the smallest number of sales since 2012.
As the percentage of sales over $800,000 increased from 36% YTD in 2021 to 51% YTD in 2022, so the median price moved from just over $700,000 to $800,000. Sales over $1 million YTD increased from 13 to 25. (more…)
October Inventory shows modest decline
After 5 months when Single Family inventory ran ahead of last year’s numbers, in October there was a modest year-on-year drop.
Single Family Homes
Condos
Condo inventory continues to lag both 2020 and 2021 levels.
Open Houses Sunday August 28
Here are today’s Open Houses:
Click on these links for details: (more…)
Summer 2022 Market Review
Click on Summer Market Review to read the market review for the first 6 months of 2022,
This reports covers all 34 cities and towns in Essex County, with more detailed reviews of Beverly, Gloucester, Manchester-by-the-Sea, Marblehead, Rockport, Salem and Swampscott
And these recent articles: (more…)
Recession? Yes, no, maybe……..
When I proposed to my wife, she was taken by surprise and responded: “Yes, no, maybe.”
I was reminded of that response while listening to all the conversations in recent days about whether or not the US already in, is about to be in, or will escape a recession.
A lot of the confusion relates to the question: “how do you define recession?” and “who gets to decide if it is a recession?”
And no, it’s not by Punxsutawney Phil looking for his shadow.
What is a recession?
The most common defintion of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. I used this defintion in my Are we already in a Recession? published on June 18th. This week’s preliminary Q2 GDP number was -0.9% which, following a first quarter print of -1.6%, ticked the GDP box.
If only life were that simple.
Who gets to decide if it is a recession?
Officially, it is the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (I didn’t even know there was such a thing as cycle dating) that declares a recession. In its books, recession is “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”
Yet the last recession declared by the NBER — for the period from March to April 2020, when the country was hit by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic — met only the first half of that definition. It was the shortest recession in U.S. history. Historically, recessions have lasted for 17 months on average.
When will we know if we are in a recession?
The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee takes a cautious approach to its job. It has typically taken the committee four to 21 months to declare a recession. It didn’t declare the recession that began in April 2001 until July 2003.
Are we in a recession?
Fed Chair Powell: “I don’t think it’s likely that the U.S. economy’s in a recession now.”
National Economic Council Director Brian Deese on Thursday argued that although economic growth is slowing, the economy as a whole is showing “extraordinary resilience,” and pointed to the jobs the nation has added in the past year. “We are in a transition, there’s no doubt. The economy is slowing and that is what most expected when coming off of an extremely strong and fast recovery last year. But all of the indications that we see right now are for an economy that’s showing extraordinary resilience in the face of global challenges,
President Biden: “Coming off of last year’s historic economic growth — and regaining all the private sector jobs lost during the pandemic crisis — it’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation.”
“The odds are very high, perhaps over three quarters, that in the next year or two we will have a recession,” says Larry Summers, former Treasury Secretary.
So the answer is…… yes, no, maybe
And these recent articles:
Economic and mortgage commentary
Federal Reserve tries to rewrite history
Has Inflation Peaked?
Have Mortgage Rates peaked?
Are we already in a Recession?
Federal Reserve in Fantasyland: Implications for Housing Market
Time to Consider an Adjustable Rate Mortgage
How Marblehead’s 2022 Property Tax Rate is calculated
Essex County 2022 Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide
Market Reports
Essex County Mid-Year Market Summary in 5 slides
Massachusetts Mid-Year Market Summary in 5 slides
How quickly are houses selling?
Have Home Sales slowed?
June Housing Inventory: still way below 2020 levels.
Other
Free Property and Mortgage Fraud alert notification for homeowners
Guide to Buying and Selling in Southwest Florida
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver, M.B.E.,M.B.A.
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReportsMA.com
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReportsMA.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
__________________
Andrew Oliver, M.B.E., M.B.A.
Real Estate Advisor
[email protected]
www.TheFeinsGroup.com
www.OliverReportsFL.com
————
Compass
800 Laurel Oak Drive, Suite 400, Naples, FL 34108
m: 617.834.8205
Open Houses weekend July 30/31
Here are this weekend’s Open Houses:
Click on these links for details: (more…)
New Listings and Inventory Update
Here are this week’s New Listings and the latest Inventory:
Click on these links for details: (more…)
Open Houses Sunday July 24
Here are today’s Open Houses:
Click on these links for details: (more…)
Marblehead Mid-Year Housing Market Report
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the 6 months to June 30, 2022 (H1) increased 8% to $875,000, while sales, reflecting the reduced inventory, dropped sharply to the lowest number this century, just above the numbers of 2008/09.
Condos
There were 19 condo sales in H1 2022, down from 25 in 2021, while the median price increased 4.1% to $505,000. (more…)
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