Why mortgage rates may be headed upwards – finally
At my son’s wedding recently, his father-in-law said “I used to be a banker, but I’m better now.” In similar vein, I confess that I have a degree in economics from Oxford, although in self-defense I should add that the degree also included philosophy and politics. Or maybe that is not a defense.
As this blog is dedicated to helping people understand as much as possible about factors affecting real estate markets I write from time to time about mortgage rates. The key to understanding where mortgage rates are headed is to know that the price of the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) is based on the yield on the US Government’s 10-year Treasury Note (10T) – and that yield is set by the bond market, not by the Federal Reserve.
Rather than explain this in more detail here I will link to two articles I have written in the recent past: Are mortgage rates going to 5%? and Why have Mortgage Rates dropped below 4%? and show two charts.
The first chart shows the course of rates over the last two years. The Fed Funds rate is the one announced by the Federal Reserve and affects short-term interest rates for items such as credit cards, auto loans and adjustable rate mortgages. Note that while the FF rate has moved up steadily, the yield on 10T spiked after the 2016 Election, trended down during the spring and summer months, and has recently moved up again. This chart clearly shows that there is no link between FF and FRM.
The second chart shows the difference between the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage and 10T. The numbers shown for 2013-2016 are averages for the entire years; the data for 2017 is the spread on those days. Note how consistent the spread has been at +/- 1.7%. And note that the current spread is below 1.5%, suggesting that the FRM is about to increase.
Why the FRM may rise in 2018
Behind all the political drama, the US economy does seem to have gathered strength in recent months, with back to back quarters showing 3% GDP growth. It seems likely that Congress will pass some measure of tax cuts and it appears that businesses have started to invest more. Inflation is below the Fed’s target but is also picking up, while unemployment, as officially measured, is extremely low. All these factors suggest that the yield on 10T may continue to increase and that in turn will lead to an increase in the FRM.
Why the FRM may not rise in 2018
In one word, Amazon. OK, I am exaggerating, but I remember some 20 years or so the famed economist, Brian Reading, explained to me why he believed inflation was no longer a threat in the US. He called it the Marshall’s effect – Never, Never, Never pay Full Price. Consumers learned to shop around and find the cheapest source – and, of course, the internet helped that process.
Back to Amazon. Recently, it bought Whole Foods and seemingly has plans to shake up the grocery market.What if Amazon decides to get into the health care market? Of is somebody else does. Disruption has occurred in many industries over the last decade – but not in health care, which represents nearly 20% of GDP.
All the focus in healthcare has been on extending coverage but much less focus has been on controlling costs. Maybe that will change.
But probably not in 2018, so at the moment it does seem likely that mortgage rates will follow the 10T and see an increase in 2018.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact Andrew Oliver on 617.834.8205 or Kathleen Murphy on 603.498.6817.
If you are looking to buy, we will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver and Kathleen Murphy are Realtors with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Marblehead house on Goldthwait Beach for only $52,000*
Sitting directly on and at the top of the longest beach in Marblehead is 46 Gallison Avenue. Huge price reduction means the house – which was substantially rebuilt in 1997 and updated in 2016 – is now offered for a mere $52,000 more than just its assessed land value. (more…)
Your new home delivered by Amazon?
Here’s a fascinating article in Curbed.com about Shipping container homes. One of them can even be delivered by Amazon.
Shipping containers have been used for everything from urban farms to off-the-grid getaways and all-in-one pools. Made from the thousands of surplus containers that sit on docks around the world, these homes can be an eco-friendly alternative to traditional building materials.
Massachusetts Q3 2017 Housing Market Report
Click here to download a pdf of this report.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact Andrew Oliver on 617.834.8205 or Kathleen Murphy on 603.498.6817.
If you are looking to buy, we will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver and Kathleen Murphy are Realtors with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
New Listings in Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Beverly and Lynn
Here are the latest new listings:
Marblehead new listings
Swampscott new listings
Salem new listings
Beverly new listings
Lynn new listings
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact Andrew Oliver on 617.834.8205 or Kathleen Murphy on 603.498.6817.
If you are looking to buy, we will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver and Kathleen Murphy are Realtors with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
How to use Oliver Reports
The goal of Oliver Reports is to help buyers and sellers (and owners) of real estate to have a better understanding of what is happening in the market. As such, we produce reports every quarter on several of the 34 cities and towns of Essex County as well as for Essex County overall and also for Massachusetts. We believe that statistics can be helpful to understanding a market, but they can also be dangerous if taken out of context. Read the comment on the Beverly condo market to appreciate the importance of having informed commentary in addition to the basic numbers.(Market reports include the option to download a pdf of the report.)
As my colleague Kathleen Murphys says: “Not everyone likes numbers and statistics but if you are thinking about buying or selling a home, information on local real estate sales and inventory is a great benefit. A good Realtor will use this data to effectively develop a pricing and marketing strategy to support your goals.”
In addition to data about the market, Oliver Reports writes on real estate related topics such as mortgage rates, property taxes (we publish a map showing property tax rates every year) and flood insurance. A new feature will be devoted to topics such as staging and design,, as well as tips for both buyers and sellers.
We also publish New Listings and Open Houses each week for several cities and towns.
Beyond statistics, we also publish some lighter articles. We have published posts about Hugh Hefner, Elvis Presley, student housings that looks like a Ritz Carlton, the smallest castle in England, the largest palace in France – in other words, short articles (most posts can be ready in under a minute) that make interesting reading.
Oliver Reports is structured so that all the posts written in a 24 hour period go out in one email at 8 a.m. When you received the email, you can quickly scan to see if there is an article you are interested in. If so, click on it. If not, ignore the email.
If you have any interest in real estate (who doesn’t want to know what her home may be worth?) or any real estate related matters (an article is pending about shipping container homes – made from the thousands of surplus containers that sit on docks around the world, these homes can be an eco-friendly alternative to traditional building materials: one can even be ordered on Amazon), please try Oliver Reports. You should find something you enjoy reading.
Finally, all the posts are available on the website www.OliverReports.com with the market reports collected under Market Reports at the top right.
Happy – and we hope, informed – reading.
Salem Q3 2017 Housing Market: Condo prices surging
The SFH market in Salem continued its steady rise in 2017, with the median price in the first 9 months increasing by 3%, while sales were down slightly from the 2016 level.
The Salem condo market has been very active for some time, and in terms of unit sales is one of the two largest in Essex County. In the first 9 months of 2017, the median price increased 12%, breaking through the $300,000 level for the first time. Sale were down 15%, reflecting the shortage of inventory. (more…)
Beverly Q3 2017 Housing Market Report
Click here to download a pdf of this report.
Beverly has been a hot market in recent years. The median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) first broke through $400,000 in 2015 and in the first 9 months of 2017 increased by 6%. Sales were down a little from last year but in line with the average of the last 5 years. (more…)
Facebook is having a Marblehead Day
Facebook has decided to show a photo of Marblehead Harbor in all my posts today. I have checked my blog and all the Essex County posts have a map of Essex County as the featured image; my Swampscott report has a Welcome to Swampscott sign and my Open House post has a Harborside Sotheby’s International realty sign.
Marblehead Oceanfront Open House: “Bring me an Offer”
Breathtaking views all the way down to the South Shore from this gracious, restored (1998-2006), 1870s oceanfront home. The open floor plan offers an easy flow for entertaining. The house sits on a private beach, high above the Atlantic, in a wonderfully protected location (no flood insurance required.) VIEWS and VIEWS and VIEWS.
Open House Sunday 12-1:30 at 11 Crown Way. And here’s a link to the Video.
Carriage house believed to be a stop on the Underground RaiIroad. Property featured by Massachusetts Historical Commission.
Listen to the sound of the ocean, while looking out over the rocks which provide a sanctuary for wildlife.
Just 13 miles north of Boston’s Logan Airport, while enjoying all the charms and delights of the “Yachting Capital of America”, and “New England’s Best-Kept Seaside Secret.” Huge price reduction allows for any further updating required.
Owner says “Bring Me An Offer.”
Swampscott Q3 Housing Report: prices break through $500,000 – at last
The startling decline in inventory at lower price levels over the last two years has contributed to a 9% increase in the median price of SFHs sold in the first 9 months of 2017 to a record level of $530,000. It is likely that 2017 will see the old 2005 record median price of $517,300 broken – finally.
Median Price
6 of the last 8 quarters have seen median prices above $500,000.
Marblehead Q3 Housing Report: prices break through $700,000
The median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) exceeded $700,000 for the first time in the third quarter. YTD the median price increased 7% to a new high of $656,000. With most of Q4 sales already under agreement, it is quite likely that the median price will exceed $700,000 for the second half of the year. Sales were down slightly YTD, a consequence of the low inventory all year.
Median Price
After a sequence in which the median exceeded $600,000 in 8 of 11 Quarters, the median price broke through $700,000 in Q3.
Essex County Third Quarter Report: A Strong Market
After passing $400,000 for the first time in 2016, the median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in Essex County increased 7% in the first 9 months of 2017 to a new record of $440,000. Sales were flat, a reflection of continuing low inventory.
The median price of the condos sold in Essex County increased by 10% over 2016 to a new high of $286,250, while sales were up 11%. The condo market has seen a significant volume of new construction which, in general, occurs at higher prices, and these higher prices help to increase the median price overall.
Total inventory of SFH as of October 1 was down 14% from a year ago (and 33% from 2015), while condo inventory was down 25% (and also down 33% from 2015).
ESSEX COUNTY SFH
Through 9 months of 2017 the rate of increase in median prices has quickened compared with recent years.
Quarterly numbers in NEW England often show fluctuations. Note that Q4 has shown a drop in the median price from Q3, not just in the last few years, but in every year since 2000.
ESSEX COUNTY CONDOS
After three years of flattish prices, 2017 has seen a sharp increase of 10% YTD.
While quarterly fluctuations are the norm, the median price of condos sold in Essex County has increased for 7 quarters in a row.
INVENTORY
Total inventory of SFH as of October 1 was down 14% from a year ago (and 33% from 2015), while condo inventory was down 25% (and also 33% from 2015
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
COMMENT
There is little new to say about the overall market in Essex County: strong demand and low inventory have led to rising prices. There are, however, wide variations from town to town as shown in this guide to Essex County town by town median prices.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
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