Buyers are overpaying, but are there signs of a bubble?

As prices continue to soar, Housing Wire asks the question: Are there signs of a bubble?

“The national average of home prices rose 14.4% year-over-year to $336,200 in February – the largest increase since July 2013, according to the latest report from Redfin. As proof of the impact of the country’s low inventory and high cost of building materials, new listings fell 16% – the second-largest decline on record since Redfin’s data began in 2012, only passed by the drop in April 2020.

Mortgage rates have also jumped to north of 3%; at its current pace, the Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting rates will reach nearly 3.5% by the end of 2021. New home applications are down as well, as builders are still struggling with smaller-than-normal crews and expensive materials that are hard to procure. And even with March well underway, mortgage applications are still in decline.”

Redfin’s chief economist makes the profound comment that : “It seems like the only move-up buyers who are confident enough to list their homes are those who are relocating to a more affordable area where they’ll have an edge on the local competition.”

I can confirm that as I was talking just yesterday to an agent whose client with a $2 million house won’t list it because “she cannot find anything to buy.”

But to come back to the question in this article: are we in a bubble? (more…)