Marblehead First Quarter Housing Market Report
In a very tight housing market, there were 35 Single Family Home (SFH) sales in Q1 2017, very consistent with the last two years. Because Q1 is the smallest quarter for sales numbers for the median price can – and do – fluctuate widely from year to year. (more…)
Marblehead home buyers gaining on sellers
On January 1 there were 51 Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Marblehead. Year to date there have been 35 new listings, so how many homes are for sale today? The answer is 46. Which means that 40 homes (51+35-46) this year have been sold, or are pending or have been withdrawn. Now is a great time to be a seller. (more…)
Marblehead 2016 Housing market By the Numbers.
The median price for both Single Family Homes (SFH) and condos reached new highs in 2016. The median price of a SFH increased 4% to $620,000 ( click here for a detailed report ) and the median price of a condo increased 15% to $370,000, fueled by a sharp jump in sales between $350,000 and $500,000.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Are you thinking of selling your home? If so please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Marblehead 2016 housing market: new record
In 2016 the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) increased by $23,500, or 4%, to $620,000, the first time the median price in Marblehead has exceeded $600,000 for a year. As in every year since 2000 except 2010 and 2011, the median price was higher in the second half of the year than in the first half.
Sales were in line with those of the two prior years – 248 vs 245 and 239 – while the number of SFHs for sale on average was much the same as 2015 but down about 25% from 2013 and 2014.
It is important to bear in mind that only around 4% of Marblehead’s more than 6,200 SFHs change hands publicly in any year, but 4% is a reasonable sample, with sales taking place from $300,000 to $4 million.
Median price
The first chart, with the numbers below, shows the median price for the two halves of the year and for the full year. 2016 was the third year in a row where the median price reached $600,000 in the second half of the year, but the first where the full year exceeded $600,000. (more…)
Marblehead Q3 housing market – on track for new record high
As often happens in a seasonal market, 2016 has seen some large variations in the quarterly median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Marblehead. In Q3, the median price was $618,500. While this was the 5th quarter in the last 8 to see a median price over $600,000, it was somewhat lower than last year’s very high figure.
YTD through 9 months the median price is $612,500, down 1% from last year’s $619,000. Because the majority of the Q4 sales are already under agreement, however, I can be confident that the median price for 2016 as a whole will exceed $600,000 for the first time.
In this report I will look at the Q3 numbers, the YTD numbers and also give a preview of where I think the year will end up.
Q3 prices
The chart and table show the quarterly median prices for the last 6 years.
YTD numbers
An unusually low or high median price in Q4 can impact the price for the full year. That did not happen in 2012-14 when the 9M and full year figures were quite close, but in both 2011 and 2015 the Q4 number was so much lower (based in each year on the mix of sales) that the median price for the full year was over $20,000 lower than the 9M figure.
Sales
Since recovering from the Great Recession sales for the full year have been between 227 and 245. Through 9 months we are at 188, with 43 pending sales, so it looks as though the full year will be in the vicinity of 240.
Available for Sale
While the numbers in themselves are quite small, there has still been a roughly 25% drop in supply from 2014 to 2016.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Outlook for 2016
The 43 pending sales have a median list price of around $680,000. YTD sales have taken place on average at 97% of list price, thus suggesting a median sales price of around $660,000 for the pending sales. Adding that to the 188 sales that have already closed this year would produce a median price for the year of about $625,000. More houses will go under agreement and close before the year end, however, so the final outcome will depend upon the prices of those additional sales.
The existing record for a year in Marblehead is the $596,500 achieved in 2015. A very dramatic swing to lower-priced houses would need to occur in the next few weeks for that record not to be beaten in 2016.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Trulia shows why you need to read Oliver Reports
We live in a world of unlimited free information, in fact we drown in the volume that is provided, but how do we know whether the information we are reading is accurate and reliable?
Once again I turn to Trulia as an example of, presumably, an automated system of reporting that lacks human oversight to spot that it keeps reporting nonsense. Here are its comments and charts on the Marblehead market:
Source: Trulia
Source: Trulia
Pure nonsense.
To find out what is really happening in the market read my Marblehead Mid-Year Review. To stay informed about local market conditions, as well as factors such as mortgage and property tax rates, sign up to receive email alerts of new posts on the right-hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Marblehead Mid-Year Report: median price up 4%
Sales of Single family Homes (SFHs) were remarkable consistent for the fifth year in a row, while the median price increased nearly 4% to a new high for the first half of the year of $595,000. Variations between Q1 and Q2 reflect the mix of sales I highlighted in my Marblehead home prices set record in 2016 First Quarter report.
The condo market saw an increase in sales, while the median price reflected a swing in sales from a majority in 2015 taking place under $250,000 to a majority in 2016 occurring above $350,000. (more…)
Housing supply even tighter than a year ago
The supply of houses and condos for sale in North Shore towns, as well as throughout Essex County and Massachusetts, is down from last year’s levels – which were themselves low.
Housing markets are generally regarded as being in equilibrium between sellers and buyers when the supply of houses for sale is equal to the number that would be sold in 6 months. So a housing supply of 6 months represents equilibrium; more than 6 months means the supply is high enough to favor buyers; less than 6 months the lack of supply favors sellers – what is known as a sellers’ market.
The following tables show the numbers for 2016 in the left column and 2015 in the right one.
Single Family Homes (SFH)
Overall supply in both Essex County and Massachusetts is less than 4 months and down from a year go. In individual towns, only Marblehead has a slight increase in supply, but the number remains below 6 months:
Condos
The condo market is even tighter with supply of less than 3 months in Essex County and Massachusetts, and all areas showing a decline from this time a year ago.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
This analysis shows the overall markets. There will be differences at differing price points, but because higher-priced houses usually take longer to sell, that means supply at the lower prices is even less than shown.
The housing market here may not be crazy, but clearly there is less supply than buyers would like.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
How much are houses in Marblehead selling for?
The data I maintain on home sales is useful but, since sales can take 2-3 months to complete from the date an offer is accepted, they do not provide as current a picture of the market as accepted offers. This article covers month by month this year the listing prices of houses in Marblehead where the seller has accepted an offer, together with the Days on Market (the number of days since the house was listed for sale) of the current inventory. Read my comments at the end of the post.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Note that 54% of offers were on houses under $600,000.
And here is the month by month breakdown:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The pace of sales has picked up recently:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Here is the current inventory by price and Days on Market(DOM):
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
The median price for a SFH home in Marblehead last year was $596,500 and the median list price for the 76 houses that have received offers this year through April is $599,000. Often the early and late months see more sales at the lower levels, so we will get a clearer idea of actual pricing trends as we get the number for the first half of the year, but it is interesting to note that as of today the median price of the 51 recorded sales in Marblehead this year is $596,000.
The market in Marblehead is active, with well-priced and well-presented homes selling quickly, but it is not running away, as shown by the fact that the the 76 SFHs for sale have been on the market for an average of 3 months.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected]. for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Marblehead Q1 Housing Market by the Numbers
This report shows a picture of the Marblehead Q1 Housing Market by the Numbers, followed by a snapshot of current inventory compared with a year ago. For a more detailed report on the Q1 SFH market read Marblehead home prices set record in Q1
Median Prices and Sales
Sales of both SFHs and Condos were quite consistent with the last couple of years. The median price of a SFH was the highest recorded in the first quarter, but as my report above showed a lot of that was due to the mix of sales in the quietest quarter of the year.
Marblehead’s condo market is a mix of older conversions and newer developments. This, together with the small number of sales, leads to great volatility in the median price over short periods of time.
Always remember that quarterly numbers can be – and frequently are – volatile, especially during the winter months. We will get a truer picture of the underlying market trends when we get the numbers for the first half of the year.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Current Inventory
When looking at the inventory of houses for sale it is important to remember the difference between relative and absolute. Relatively speaking, inventory is up on a year ago with all the increase above $750,000. But in absolute terms the numbers are still low. Marblehead has averaged around 70 SFH sales in Q2 – April to June – in the last few years. Current inventory of 65, therefore, represents less than 3 months of supply.
The number of condos for sale, while higher than at this time last year, is still absolutely low.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected]. for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Trulia’s Marblehead homes give away
I have been very good in not picking on Trulia’s “statistics” for some months now but this is one I could not resist.
According to Trulia, the “average listing price for all homes in 01945” was 242% below the listing price of a house at $3.5 million.*
OK, Trulia here is a math lesson. (more…)
Marblehead 2015 Median Price revised
Recently, I spotted in the MLS that one SFH listing in Marblehead was still showing as pending several months after an offer had been accepted. I checked with the Registry of Deeds and found that the sale had actually closed last October, but the broker had failed to update the listing in MLS, a violation of MLS rules. (Note, this was not one of the major real estate firms, but an Entry Only listing).
No big deal, you may think, but the addition of just one sale did two things: it lowered the median price for 2015 by $2,500 to $596,500, and it caused me to redo 6 charts and tables. The first was disappointing, the second downright annoying.
Here is the revised Marblehead 2015 Housing Market review. (more…)
Bizarre Open House activity
Last Sunday the temperature was in the single digits after the coldest night in 60 years. It was also the start of school vacation week in New England. And it was President’s Day weekend. And Valentine’s Day.
Being smart people, most real estate agents concluded that there was no point in holding an Open House.
But a bizarre thing happened. At one of the few Open Houses in Marblehead, 16 couples came through. At another there were 12. And both these houses were hosted by Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty (HSIR) agents.
There are two clear messages: buyers are out there, and HSIR agents really work hard for their clients – as well as having the best marketing plans. (more…)
2015 Marblehead housing market review
This 2015 Marblehead housing market review focuses on the Single Family Home (SFH) market. I have published a separate Marblehead 2015 condo market review.
In summary, sales were down modestly from last year – at 239 vs 245 – and the median price was up slightly at a new record $596,500, compared with $590,000 in 2014.
It is important to bear in mind that only around 4% of Marblehead’s SFHs change hands publicly in any year, but 4% is a reasonable sample, with sales taking place from $267,000 to $4.6 million.
And there is seasonality in the market, as you will see from looking at the quarterly median price numbers which ranged from $535,000 to $660,000.
Median price
The first chart, with the numbers below, shows the median price for the two halves of the year and for the full year. The $614,500 median price in the second half of 2015 was a new record, beating the $600,000 in 2014, which was the first time Marblehead recorded a median price of $600,000 in any half-year.
The quarterly numbers show how the market can vary. After 9 months it looked as though we were going to see a median price for the year well over $600,000, but sales in the last quarter were skewed to the lower end. In Q3 the median price finally broke the old record for any quarter, the $645,000 recorded in Q3 2006. Ironically, that quarter was followed by a quarter with a median price of $539,950, a difference of 16%, while in 2015 the change from Q3 to Q4 was 17%.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Sales
Sales were modestly down from last year, but were still the second highest total since 2004:
The tables show the breakdown in sales by price for the last three years. First overall sales.
The next tables break down sales in more detail. First, sales under $600,000. In 2014 and 2015, 51% of sales were under $600,000, evidence confirming that the median price (that at which 50% are higher and 50% lower) was also just under $600,000. Note that in 2013, 63% were under $600,000, indicating that the median price was well below $600,000 (it was $535,000).
As prices ( and buyers) moved up so the percentage in the next brackets increased. As in the lower bracket, the main change occurred in 2014 (when the median price increased 10%), while there was little change from 2014 to 2015:
That pattern – the big change from 2013 to 2014, with 2015 being pretty stable, was also seen in sales at $1 million and above. Perhaps the biggest surprise of 2015 was that the top end did not see more sales. There was, however, increased activity towards the end of the year, and I will write a separate report on that segment of the market;
Assessed Value to Sales Ratio (ASR)
One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%.
As we all hope out properties are worth more than the AV we look for an ASR below 100% as a positive sign. Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills that have just been sent out for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.
What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling. The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall. So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.
Let’s look at the ASR in recent years:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The ASR has fallen steadily since 2009. At 87.4% in 2015, the median house in Marblehead sold for 14% (100/87.4 – 1) above its Assessed Value. I was surprised that AVs did not increase more for the FY2016 tax bills that have just gone out, but I am confident that AVs will increase in FY2017 by more than they did in FY2016, but that’s a subject for another report.
Outlook for 2016
I am, of course, an optimist, but there are several reasons to expect a strong market in 2016:
– historically, when mortgage rates start to move up, buyers are active, fearing they may miss the low rates
– the winter is unlikely to be as harsh as the last two, so there may not be the same economic slowdown in the first quarter
– the Massachusetts economy continues to do well
– with the boom in Boston, prices here look even more attractive
– and finally, supply, of which there is very little. Currently, there are just 42 SFHs for sale in Marblehead, and only 6 of them (!) are under the 2015 median price!
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read How should I choose the broker to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Marblehead home prices set record in Q3
In Q3 the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Marblehead reached $660,000, finally beating the 2006 Q3 figure of $645,000.
The 2006 Q3 number was an anomaly. Until Q4 2014 it was the only quarter to see a median price over $600,000. But since then:
The Q3 2015 number was an increase of 11% from $595,500 in Q3 2014. For the first 9 months of 2015 the median price was $621,500, an increase of 6% from $585,600 in 2014. These increases are about double those for Essex County and Massachusetts overall.
Q3 often sees the highest median price for the year, just as Q1 often sees the lowest. That seems likely to be the case again this year as the median list price of the 32 currently pending sales is around $550,000. Nevertheless, it seems quite likely that 2015 will see the median price exceed $600,000 for the first time.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker should I use to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
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