Andrew Oliver joins Team Harborside as Market Analyst
I am delighted formally to be joining up with Matt Dolan and Dick McKinley of Team Harborside, as described in this release:
Andrew Oliver joins Team Harborside as Market Analyst
This new role allows me to concentrate on providing the analysis which will help Matt and Dick when they act for you in buying or selling your home. Please contact me for an introduction!
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Housing Inventory by Price in North Shore towns
While conventional wisdom holds that a market is in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when the current inventory represents 6 months of sales, that overall number masks major differences which occur at different price points.
The tables below show the position by price for Essex County overall and for Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Beverly and Lynn.
Essex County
The table below breaks down supply at different price levels for Essex County overall.This shows that the dynamic between sellers and buyers changes as prices go above $750,000.
Marblehead Q1 2019 Housing Market Review
[Click here to download a pdf of this review.]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of SFH sold in Marblehead in Q1 2019 was $602,500. This compared with $730,000 in Q1 2018 and $605,000 in Q1 2017, a clear indication of the quarterly fluctuations that can occur, especially during the winter months, when the number of sales is small.
Rutter Requiem tonight in Marblehead
This hauntingly beautiful Requiem is the main feature of tonight’s concert at 7:30 pm at Old North Church, 35 Washington Street in Marblehead. Admission is free to this 70 minute concert and a free-will offering will be accepted:
Twenty Questions with Marblehead Assessor
[Click here to download a copy of this article which first appeared in the Marblehead Reporter on January 31.]
The FY2019 (July 1, 2018 – June 30, 2019) tax rate has been set at $10.74, down from $11.02 in FY2018. While the median single family (SFH) assessment increased 4.5%, or $27,000, to $630,000, the median single family tax bill increased by just 1.7%, or $121, to $6,766. The commercial rate has once again been set at the same level as the residential rate.
Note that the tax rate includes the cost of debt exclusions (mainly for school construction and items like the new transfer station) voted by residents. Debt service accounts for $1.02 of the 2019 tax rate, down from $1.12 in 2018. Excluding the cost of debt service, the tax rate fell from $9.90 to $9.72.
Marblehead’s 2019 tax rate will be the second lowest of the 34 cities and towns in Essex County. The highest rate in Essex County belongs to Amesbury at $18.34; the lowest Rockport at $9.86; and the median is $14.02.
Approximately 75% of Marblehead’s revenue comes from property taxes.
Real-estate assessments for Fiscal Year 2019 were mailed at the end of last year. Assessor Mike Tumulty answered questions about the process.
1. What is the timeframe upon which assessments are based?
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- MT. For FY2019, assessments are based upon values as of January 2018, using sales data for calendar year 2017. Sales that took place in calendar year 2018, therefore, will be the basis for the assessment for FY 2020.
2. What percentage of properties sells each year?
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- MT. In 2017 there were 204 arms-length sales of SFHs, or 3% of the stock of 6,222 houses, and 62 sales of condos, representing 6.3% percent of the stock of 985 units.
- AO. While it is hard to get an accurate read on national statistics, it is certainly true that we stay in our houses longer than do people elsewhere. No surprise there: Marblehead is not only a great place to live, but it is also extremely well run, as demonstrated by our low tax rate.
3. Is there a minimum requirement for assessment purposes?
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- MT.The assessment process requirement is 2 % for each property class, or a minimum of 20 units. Where there are fewer than 20 sales, as in categories such as multi-families and commercial, data for 24 months is used. For FY 2019 that period is July 2016 to June 2018.
4. Can I appeal my assessment? (more…)
Marblehead 2018 Housing Market By The Numbers
[Click here to download a copy of this report.]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in 2018 increased 3.7% to a new record $689,500. Reflecting the shortage of supply, sales declined again to the lowest level since 2011.
Condos
The main feature of the condo market in 2018 was that two-thirds of the condos sold at or above list price.
NB. The numbers for Condos were updated on January 22 to remove an incorrect listing in MLS. The change was minor.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.andrewJoliver.com
www.OliverReports.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Headlines for Marblehead and Swampscott
Marblehead
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in Marblehead in 2018 increased 3.7% to a new record of $689,500. Sales dropped to the lowest level since 2011.
Swampscott
After finally breaking the 2005 peak of $517,300 in 2017, the median price jumped 10.8% in 2018. Sales recovered to the 2016 level, but were below the levels of 2013-2015.
Detailed reports on both markets (and several others) will be published in the near future.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Tel: 617.834.8205
Housing Supply is limited in Marblehead and Swampscott
In my Inventory starts 2019 continuing rising trend article yesterday I commented: While inventory has been increasing steadily for some months, in absolute terms it is still low.
Inventory in New England is always low in the first few months of the year, and activity in the first quarter of the year is very weather dependent, but in this article I show the current inventory (in terms of months of supply*) for Marblehead and Swampscott, as well as for Essex County overall.
Marblehead
Only 3 houses currently for sale under $600,000 and only 18 under $1 million.
Swampscott
Just 10 houses for sale under $1 million.
Essex County
Very limited supply under $1 million.
* a market is generally regarded as being in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when supply is 6 months
Comment
The economy is still strong, if slowing somewhat, and mortgage rates have dropped back to 4.5%.
It is early January and it is New England and winter, but there do seem to be opportunities for sellers in many price ranges.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.OliverReports.com
617.834.8205
How is Marblehead’s 2019 Property Tax Rate calculated?
This article, which explains how the tax rate is calculated, is a follow up to Marblehead 2019 tax rate drops to $10.74.
The formula is actually very simple: take the $ amount of the previous year’s tax levy, add 2.5% for Proposition 2 1/2, and also add any new growth (such as new construction or a condo conversion). This figure is the new tax levy. To this figure is added debt service – the Principal and Interest payable on the town’s debt.
Here are the numbers for Fiscal Year 2018 and 2019, remembering that the FY runs from July to June.
The Tax Levy calculation
The dollar amount raised by the property tax will increase year by year. That is because of the formula: last year’s number plus 2.5% plus new growth. In the table above you can see how the FY 2018 tax levy of $59,592,925 becomes the base for FY 2019. Add $1,489,823 for Prop 2.5% and $317,431 for new growth and the new figure is $61,400,179. To this number is added the debt service – Principal and Interest on the town’s debt, much as homeowners pay P&I on their mortgage – to give a total amount to be raised of $67,841,293.
The Tax Rate
The actual tax rate depends upon the total Assessed Value of all property: residential, commercial and personal. The tax rate is calculated by dividing the total dollar amount to be raised by the total Assessed Value of all property. Thus, while the $ amount raised by the tax (and therefore the average tax bill) will increase each year, the headline tax rate will fluctuate depending upon the direction of Assessed Values.
In simplistic terms, the $ amount raised before debt service will increase by a little more than 2 1/2% each year, so if the median Assessed Value also increases by a little more than 2 1/2% the tax rate will be unchanged. If the increase in Assessed Values is less than 2 1/2%, then the tax rate will rise. And if the increase in Assessed Values is more than 2 1/2% then the tax rate will rise. One other variable is the cost of debt service, which is currently projected to be stable for the next few years.
In FY 2018 the tax rate was $11.02, achieved by dividing the almost $66.3 million to be raised by the $6.0 billion of Assessed value. And in FY 2019 the calculation is $67.8 million divided by $6.3 billion, which produces a rate of $10.74. While the tax rate will decline in 2019, the median tax bill, based on the higher Assessed Values, will increase by $121, or 1.7%, to $6,766.
Note that the calculation of the tax rate is made simpler by the fact that Marblehead’s Board of Selectmen votes each year to have a single tax rate for both residential and commercial tax. In towns which elect to have a differential rate – i.e. by taxing commercial property at a higher rate than residential – there are generally two different tax rates, achieved by diving the amount to be raised from residential and commercial taxpayers by their respective aggregate Assessed Values.
How does debt service affect the tax rate?
The announced property tax rate announced each year includes the cost of debt service, which Marblehead tries to keep to 10% or less of the total tax bill. The first major reduction in debt service is not currently due until FY 2026.
What is the outlook for FY 2020?
The residential real estate market in Marblehead has been strong again in 2018 (and 2018 prices will be the basis for the FY 2020 tax rate). At this stage it looks as though the SFH median price will be around $690,000, an increase of about 4% from 2017’s $665,000. But bear in mind this is the median price of the roughly 210 SFHs that will sell this year out of the more than 6,200 SFHs in Marblehead. This does not imply that the Town’s Assessed Value will increase by 4%, including as it does all types of property.
Nevertheless, with debt service forecast to be similar to the FY 2019 level, it seems reasonable to expect that the tax rate in FY 2020 will be similar to that for FY 2019 or slightly lower.
www.OliverReports.com
Marblehead 2019 Property Tax rate drops to $10.74
Marblehead’s Fiscal Year 2019 (July 1, 2018-June 30, 2019) tax rate has been certified by the State at $10.74, a drop of 2.5% from $11.02 in 2018, and the lowest rate since 2012. The median tax bill will increase by 1.7%, or $121, to $6,766. As a reminder, the tax rate for FY’19 is calculated using 2017 prices. 2018 prices will be the basis for the FY 2020 tax calculation.
I will publish a detailed explanation of how the tax is calculated next week. (here it is: How is Marblehead’s 2019 Tax Rate calculated?). When they are available, I shall also publish a table of the tax rates for each of the 34 cities and towns in Essex County.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact Andrew Oliver on 617.834.8205 or Kathleen Murphy on 603.498.6817.
If you are looking to buy, we will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver and Kathleen Murphy are Realtors with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Marblehead Q3 Report: Median Price reaches $700,000
[Click here to download a copy of this report.]
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the first 9 months of 2018 reached $700,000, a 7% increase year on year. Sales declined again, reflecting the shortage of inventory. (Numbers in bold represent record levels).
Median Price
The first chart shows the median price for the first 9 months of the year. The second one shows the quarterly median prices which tend to fluctuate, in part because Marblehead is a seasonal market, with most sales taking place in the second and third quarters of the year.Note that the median price has exceeded $700,000 in 4 of the last 5 quarters.
Sales
Lack of inventory has been a constant factor for some time and this is the prime reason that sales YTD are 20% lower than they were in 2016. The impact of rising prices can be seen by the fact that the proportion of sales under $600,000 dropped from 50% in 2016 to 39% in 2017 and to just 27% in 2018.
The combination of strong demand and low supply meant that about one-third of sales YTD took place at or above list price. This phenomenon was not limited to houses at the lower end. A house on Gregory Street sold for $260,000 more than its $1.9 million list price.
Current inventory
This chart shows the inventory as of October 1st for the last three years. While overall inventory is lower than it was in 2016, there has been an increase since 2017, and current inventory is the highest during 2018. Compared with 2016 there are fewer houses for sale between $600,000 and $1.5 million, and more between $1.5 million and $3 million. For those who like symmetry, note the repetition of the number 10 in current inventory.
Condos
The condo market in Marblehead is quite small and varies widely from purpose built harborside condos to the conversion of former 2 and 3 family buildings. The combination of a varied market and a small number of sales can lead to fluctuations in the median price, but overall the condo market in Marblehead has been quite consistent in the last two years.
Note, however, that as a reflection of demand, almost 4 in 10 of YTD sales took place at or over list price:
Comment
The numbers confirm that the median price of the SFHs sold in Marblehead in recent years has shown steady, but not outrageous, increases. As the year has progressed, supply has increased, as have mortgage rates. These two factors may help to bring supply and demand into better balance in 2019.
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.SaganHarborside.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing inventory: what a difference price makes
Yesterday’s report Housing inventory: town by town guide showed that the overall supply of Single Family Homes (SFH) in Essex County was 2.8 months, whereas a market is regarded as being in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply.
But as this report shows, an overall figure for supply can hide enormous variations at different price points. While it is natural that because there are fewer buyers at higher price points houses at these levels take longer to sell, this report quantifies the supply at different price levels in Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Beverly and Lynn.
Whether you are a buyer or a seller, it is important to understand the supply today at your price point. For further information, please contact your Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty agent.
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.SaganHarborside.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Corinthian Classic Yacht Parade Sunday at 10:30
The parade portion of the The Corinthian Yacht Club’s Classic Yacht Regatta and Parade will be held Sunday when 25 – plus vintage sailing yachts make there way down the channel from Fort Sewall at Marblehead Harbor and back up to Chandler Hovey Park on Aug. 12 starting at 10:30 a.m.
The best viewing for the event will be from Fort Sewall to the Landing Restaurant or Chandler Hovey Park Lighthouse. Come out and watch the parade! (Marblehead Reporter)
Courtesy Blake Johnson
“This is just a great assembly of vintage yachts,” said (SHSIR agent)Timmy Dittrich , who, along with with Bruce Dyson, is co-chairing the event.
“You’ll see yachts that were built in the golden age of sailing,” Dittrich said. “You don’t have opportunities to gather yachts like this very often. The Corinthian Yacht Club is very proud to have them this weekend every year. If you love going to vintage car shows, or appreciate vintage automobiles, this is the equal on the water.” (Lynn Daily Item).
Supreme Court rules: Gerrymandering is pronounced with a hard G
The Supreme Court has spoken — Gerry is pronounced with a hard “G.”
The Marblehead Board of Selectmen received a response to a letter it sent last month to Supreme Court Justice John Roberts taking issue with the pronunciation of the word “gerrymandering.”
Here is the article from the Marblehead Reporter:
Supreme Court rules on “gerrymandering” letter
The original cartoon of the “The Gerry-Mander” depicts the Sixth Congressional District as a strange animal with claws, wings and a dragon-type head, and first appeared in The Boston Gazette.
No we just have to get people actually to pronounce it correctly.
Marblehead Mid-Year 2018 Housing Market Report
(Click here to download a PDF of this report)
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFHs) sold in Marblehead in the first half of 2018 increased by 10% from a year ago to $692,500. In 16 of the last 18 years – the exceptions being during the Great Recession in 2010/11 – the median price has been higher in the second half of the year than in the first.
As the chart below shows, prices can and do fluctuate from quarter to quarter, but it is worth noting that only twice in the last 18 years has the highest price for the year been achieved in the first quarter.
Sales
Sales declined, largely as a result of the shortage of inventory, as demand remained very strong.
Sales by Price
Just one in 10 sales in the first half of 2018 occurred below $500,000, while just over half the sales took place between $600,000 and $1 million. Sales over $1 million were up sharply from last year, which saw a slow start to such sales.
Of the 85 sales, 25 occurred above the list price while 7 were at list price.
Current Inventory
While inventory has increased somewhat in recent weeks, it is still below the level of prior years and currently there are just 24 houses for sale for under $1 million.
Condos
The condo market in Marblehead is small and varies from old 2-3 family conversions to purpose-built oceanfront units. Those two factors can – and frequently – do cause wide swings in the recorded median price. The larger the sample the more reliable the number (the law of large numbers) so I place some confidence in the half-yearly number and most in the full year’s figure. Note also the breakdown in sales by price shown after the pricing information.
Condos For Sale
As of July 1 there were just 2 condos for sale under $450,000.
Summary
Higher mortgage rates in the first half of 2018 had little or no effect on demand which continued to outstrip supply. With only 12 of 54 SFHs currently for sale and 8 of 17 pending sales having list prices under $700,000, it seems likely that the median price may well exceed $700,000 for the year for the first time.
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
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