Housing Inventory Jumps after Labor Day
My monthly review of housing inventory as of the first of the month is preempted this month because the period after Labor Day usually sees a jump in listings at the start of the “second selling season.”
First let me show the change in the first week after Labor Day for Essex County:
Conventional wisdom is correct: there is a jump in new listings after Labor Day, but note that the number of SFHs for sale as of September 6 is some 12% down from 2018.
How does inventory compare with a year ago?
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The next two charts (the first for January to June, the second July to December) show the SFH inventory as of the 1st of the month since 2016. After increasing Year-on-Year (YOY) for 11 consecutive months, from August 2018 to June 2019, YOY inventory has now dropped for the last three months.
Condos
YoY increases were seen for 13 months, from June 2018 until August 2019. September was basically flat from last year.
Comment
With so many different and confusing economic indicators, the one constant in recent months has been the continuing drop in mortgage rates. As highlighted in Mortgage rates drop to 3.5% the 30-year Fixed rate Mortgage rate has dropped from almost 5% last Thanksgiving to 3.5% currently.
Since late last year I have consistently written that I expected 2019 to see a slowing, but still growing, economy and a stable housing market. With an election just over a year ago, logic suggests that a compromise with China over trade will be worked out, which should ensure continued growth.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory declining again
Following year over year (YOY) increases for 11 consecutive months until June, the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County fell in August for the second month in a row.
Condos
The condo market is the focus on much of the new construction that takes place,and inventory at the beginning of August increased YOY for the 15th consecutive month.
Comment
It is summer, a quiet time in real estate markets, but this summer has seen a continuation of the sharp drop in mortgage rates, from almost 5% last November to 3.6% this week.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County Mid-Year 2019 Housing Market Summary
[Click here to download a copy of the report.]Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of SFHs sold increased a modest 2.2% to a new high of $465,000, while sales were in line with the numbers in recent years.
Condos
The median condo sales price increased 5.1% to $310,000, as the price reached or exceeded $300,000 for the fifth consecutive quarter. Sales eased slightly.
NB Numbers in bold represent record levels
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Inventory growth slows
After 11 consecutive months of Year on Year (YOY) increases in the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFHs) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County, July saw a very slight decline – but still a decline, ending the streak at 11 months.
The first chart shows the numbers for the months of January to June; the second for July through December. While inventory is close to 2017 levels, it is still way below 2016 numbers.
Condos
There was no similar slowdown in the growth of Condos, possible because this is the segment of the market which sees most of the new supply, and the YOY number increased for the 14th consecutive month. That new supply helps to see inventory exceed 2017 levels, but it is still well below that of 2016.
Comment
One of my favourite comments is the importance of understanding the difference between relative and absolute. In this case, while there may be relatively more SFHs and Condos for sale than a year ago, in absolute terms the number is still very low.
If we accept “conventional wisdom” that a market in equilibrium between buyers and sellers has 6 months of supply, the market is still heavily slanted in favour of sellers. The supply at July 1st in Essex County for SFHs was a little over 2 months while for condos it was a little below 2 months.
But that is the starting point for a more detailed analysis, as conditions vary greatly by price and by town.
Check back tomorrow for a breakdown of supply at different price points for North Shore towns.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory back to 2017 levels
For the 12th consecutive month the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County increased compared with the same month of the previous year. For the last two months the 2019 number has returned to the levels of 2017.
Condos
The number of Condos for sale increased, compared with the same month of the prior year, for the 13th consecutive month in June.For the last two months the number has been running ahead of 20-17 levels. (more…)
Essex County Inventory: Town by Town
Conventional wisdom is that a market is in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when the inventory represents 6 months of supply.
The table below lists inventory in terms of months of supply from the lowest to highest and suggests that nearly every town in Essex County is still seeing a seller’s market:
Housing Inventory by Price in North Shore towns
While conventional wisdom holds that a market is in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when the current inventory represents 6 months of sales, that overall number masks major differences which occur at different price points.
The tables below show the position by price for Essex County overall and for Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Beverly and Lynn.
Essex County
The table below breaks down supply at different price levels for Essex County overall.This shows that the dynamic between sellers and buyers changes as prices go above $750,000.
Essex County Inventory Increases Further
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County increased year over year (YOY) for the 11th consecutive month in May:
(more…)
Essex County Q1 2019 Housing Market Review
[Click Essex County Q1 2019 Housing Market Report to download a pdf of this report]The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County in Q1 2019 increased 2.9% to $445,000, while sales were almost exactly the same as a year ago. (more…)
Housing Inventory increase continues
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County increased year-over-year for the 9 th consecutive month, with levels back in line with 2017 numbers:
Condos
The story is similar with Condos where the increase year-on-year has been happening for 10 months.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.andrewJoliver.com
www.OliverReports.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Million Dollar Sales jump 15% in Essex County
Sales of Single Family Homes (SFH) at $1 million or more in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County jumped 15% in 2019 to a record level of 331.
Andover took over the number one position from Marblehead, where Million Dollar sales have been flat for the last three years:
Click Million Dollar Sales by Town to download a copy of the table including aggregate numbers not in the table above.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.andrewJoliver.com
www.OliverReports.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Inventory : rising trend continues
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County increased again in February, the 8th consecutive month of increase Year-on-Year. The first chart below shows January-June and the second one July-December:
Condos
It is the same story with condos, except that here the increase in February was the 9th consecutive month of Year-on-Year increases:
Comment
Translating inventory into months of supply is complicated this early in the year for two reasons: inventory is always low in the winter, as is sales activity. I will, however, write another post soon showing the current inventory by price for each of the towns and cities of Essex County.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.andrewJoliver.com
www.OliverReports.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County 2018 Housing Market By The Numbers
[Click here to download a copy of this report.]Single Family Homes(SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County increased 3.9% to $457,000, while sales eased very slightly from the 2017 level.
Condos
The median price of Condos sold in 2018 increased 5.3%, reaching $300,000 for the first time. Sales declined by 5% from the 2017 level.
*figures in bold represent record levels
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.andrewJoliver.com
www.OliverReports.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County 2018 Median Home Prices: Town by Town
[Click here to download the table listing towns in alphabetical order, and here to download the table showing towns from highest to lowest median price.]Overall, in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County, the median Single Family Home (SFH) price increased 3.9% to $457,000, while sales were down 2%.
The table below shows the median price for each town for the last 4 years, with the percentage change in 2918. It also compares sales for the last two years.
Note that a small number of sales can lead to price fluctuations, as in Essex Town, Rockport and Wenham amongst others. In general, the larger the number of sales, the more reliable is the median price.
While the overall median price in Essex County was $457,000, only 12 of the 34 cities and towns had median prices below this level, while 22 had median prices above $457,000. The reason for this is that the median price for the the County is calculated by taking all individual property sales, and many of the towns with a large number of sales are in communities with lower prices.
Calculating the median price for Essex County using towns rather than individual sales produces a median price of $547,500.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.andrewJoliver.com
www.OliverReports.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
When is the best time to buy or sell a house?
The best time to sell a home is the spring or early summer, right? But is there evidence to back up that belief? This article provides the answer to the question: when is the best time to buy or sell a home?
I looked at the median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in Essex County by quarter over the last 19 years. (Note that in all my reports, while sales numbers include all recorded MLS sales, median prices exclude distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales).
The highest price recorded each year is highlighted. This shows that in 15 of the 19 years the highest median price was recorded in Q3 – July to September; in three years the highest price was achieved in Q2, and in just one – 2000 – the highest price was in Q4. But in none of the years did Q1 see the highest price.
The next table shows the same data but with the lowest quarterly price highlighted. Here we see that in 16 of the 19 years the lowest median price was seen in Q1 and in the other 3 years it occurred in Q4, but never in Q2 or Q3.
Let me summarize these in a table:
Conclusion
While the argument has always been made that the spring or summer is the best time to sell a house because that is when there are more buyers looking (hence, more sales take place), the evidence here adds the additional information that the best prices are also achieved in the summer months.
Thus, as a seller one does indeed want to be ready to go to the market when the thermometer rises. Conversely, the best time to buy is :
In the bleak mid-winter
Frosty wind made moan,
Earth stood hard as iron,
Water like a stone;
Snow had fallen, snow on snow,
Snow on snow,
In the bleak mid-winter
Long ago.
Sounds a lot like the forecast for this weekend.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read How should I choose the broker to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
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