Swampscott Mid-Year Market Report
The median price of Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the first half of 2021 (H1 2021) increased 16.5% from $592,500 to $690,000, while sales increased from 59 to 68, exactly in line with the 5-year pre-COVID average.
Following 2 SFH sales over $2 million in H2 2020, there were 3 such sales in H1 2021. 3 out of 4 SFH sales took place over list price, with 28% of all sales (compared with 11% in H1 2020) at 110% or more of list. (more…)
Swampscott Q1 2021 Housing Market Review
1. The median price of the SFHs sold in Q1 2021 increased 5.6% to $599,000, but this compared with $630,000 for the whole of 2020.
2. Without sales at Fisherman’s Watch – which occurred in Q1 2020 at prices between $724,900 and $1.25 million -the median price of the Condos sold dropped back to $415,000, more in line with the figure from Q2 to Q4 in 2020.
3. SFH sales have been volatile in the last 3 years: 14 in Q1 2019, 30 in 2020 and back to 15 in Q1 2021. Condo sales ticked up from 16 to 17, but with a very different mix.
For a more detailed report on the market in Q1 go to Team Harborside’s website and read: Swampscott Q1 Market Review (more…)
New Listings mid-week March 24
Still a small number of new listings:
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings
These tables show that inventory is greatly reduced from a year ago, when levels were already low: (more…)
Only One House For Sale in Swampscott under $2 million
The shortage of inventory has been a major topic of conversation both locally and nationally for some time now, but the current situation in Swampscott is extreme.
There are just 5 Single Family Homes for sale (MLS shows 6 but one is listed as both SFH and Condo and is actually a Condo legally). Of those 5 , one is listed at $1.75 million, one at $2.8 million, one at $2.9 million, one at $3.5 million and one at $6.5 million.
Such is the supply/demand equation that when houses at lower prices – and some at higher prices – do come on the market a bidding war breaks out.
Thus, if you may be thinking of selling in the spring, you may want to consider taking advantage of the current market drought and list now, especially with mortgage rates having increased quite sharply from the recent extraordinary lows.
Team Harborside is the leading team for sales on the North Shore and we would delighted to offer you an opinion of the current valuation of your property.
Read these recent articles:
Mortgage Rates are Rising
How Marblehead’s 2021 Property Tax Rate is Calculated
Essex County 2021 Residential Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of Oliver Reports . He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReportsMA.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®
Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
[email protected]
m. 617.834.8205
www.MarbleheadSouth.com
Swampscott Housing Market 2020 Review
After a low first quarter the median Single Family Home (SFH) price was consistently in the low $600,000s for the rest of the year.
For a more detailed report, including details of how the new Fisherman’s Watch condo units impacted the median price, go to Team Harborside’s website: Swampscott 2020 Review (more…)
Swampscott Q3 2020 Housing Market Report
[Click here to download a copy of this report]
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the first 9 months of 2020 increased 4.1%, breaking $600,000 for the first time. Sales were steady, while the median Days to Offer (DTO) was just 7 days. (more…)
Latest list of properties for sale
New listings are seeing tremendous competition, and inventory is way down compared with a year ago. Buyers need to look at the list of all available properties as sometimes properties get overlooked for no obvious reason. Here is the summary of current inventory:
So, how much have house prices gone up?
Anecdotally, we have all heard about how prices outside Boston are booming, as people move out of the city, but how much have prices actually gone up?
Because small numbers can – and do – produce misleading statistics, I look for large numbers, as in my quarterly reports. I have, however, calculated the monthly median prices for Essex County SFHs and for Boston condos. After these charts, I will also give an early indication of what the third quarter will look like in Marblehead and Swampscott.
Essex County SFH
This chart shows the monthly median prices for the last 4 years. The blue top line is 2020. After being around $500,000 for the first few months, the median price moved to $545,000 in July and to $575,000 in August. These are, of course, monthly numbers which can fluctuate, but it is also worth noting that the numbers for August refer to sales contracted in June for the most part.
This table shows the quarterly progression. Q2 and Q3 are normally the highest quarters for the year.
Boston Condos
This chart is less clear, but the table below shows that median prices are little changed from 2019 YTD and have been declining quarter by quarter in 2020.
Marblehead and Swampscott
After being below $700,000 in Q1 and Q2, the Q3 median SFH price will blow through not $700,000 but $800,000 – and comfortably at that.
In Swampscott, however, the median SFH is likely to be similar to the 2019 level. Some interesting analysis when I write my Q3 reports.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Housing Inventory chronically low while demand is strong
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
List of Properties Available for sale
New listings are seeing tremendous competition, and inventory is way down compared with a year ago. Buyers need to look at the list of all available properties as sometimes properties get overlooked for no obvious reason. Here is the summary of current inventory:
Click on these links for full details:
Marblehead SFHs For Sale
Marblehead Condos For Sale
Swampscott SFH For Sale
Swampscott Condos For Sale
Salem SFH For Sale
Salem Condos For Sale
Beverly SFHs For Sale
Beverly Condos For Sale
Lynn SFHs For Sale
Lynn Condos For Sale
Inventory chronically low; demand booming
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Swampscott Condos For Sale
Swampscott Q1 2020 Housing Market Summary
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median SFH in Q1 2020 was almost unchanged at $567,500 compared with $568,000 in Q1 2019. SFH sales totaled 30 in Q1 2020, up sharply from just 14 in 2019 and compared with the 5-year average of 22.
The SFH median price increased 49% from the low in 2011 until 2019 and was 14% above the pre-Great Recession high.
Condos
The median price of the condos sold surged 53% to $515,000, reflecting the sale of units at Fisherman’s Watch at prices from $724,900 to $1,249,000. Condo sales increased from 10 to 16, with 5 of the sales in the new Fisherman’s Watch development.
COVID-19
Sales are a lagging indicator, reflecting offers that were accepted some 6-8 weeks earlier. A more current indicator is the number of new offers accepted. Not surprisingly, accepted offers dropped sharply at the end of March and in early April, before recovering, slowly at first, and then more strongly as buyers and sellers adapted to the new way of doing business.
The 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage dropped from 3.74% at the end of 2019 to 3.5% at the end of March and to 3.25% by the end of April, but the mortgage market was in some disarray, especially in the jumbo and non-conventional market, as a result of the disruption caused by COVID-19.
Inventory
After years of decline, the number of SFH for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019, and of Condos from June 2018 until August 2019, whereupon the decline resumed.
With the uncertainty caused by the pandemic, the inventory of SFHs in Essex County was 35% below the 2019 level on May 1. In Swampscott there were 15 SFHs for sale compared with 22 in 2019.
Andrew Oliver
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m. 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Currently available properties
In the continuing absence of Open Houses, I am replacing the normal Open House post with one showing details of all houses and condos currently available for sale. Different arrangements are being made for viewing so please contact me to see what is possible. Properties are still selling in this environment.
Click on these links for full details of each of the properties: (more…)
Swampscott: where have all the sellers gone?
Recently, I published Swampscott homeowners: now is a GREAT time to sell.
Since then, all 3 of the houses listed at the time for under $1 million have had offers accepted, while this week two more were listed :
11 Bay View Drive at $665,000, and 85 Walker Road at $459,900.
There are currently just 11 houses for sale in Swampscott and 5 of those are new construction in a 55+ community; 3 others are $2.9 million or more, and the last one is 20 One Salem Street at $1.2 million.
So…. if you have been thinking of selling it is hard to imagine a better opportunity: 3,462 SFHs in Swampscott and only 6 of them (the other 5 are new construction) for sale. The demand is there, but where is the supply?
If you would like to know what your home might sell for in this market please contact me to arrange for Team Harborside to visit you and give you a current market opinion.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Swampscott Homeowners: now is a GREAT time to sell
The lack of housing inventory has been a feature of markets for several years, but nowhere to my knowledge has reached the situation currently prevailing in Swampscott.
Guess how many Single Family Homes are for sale currently? Just 12. Let me repeat that – there are 12 SFHs for sale in Swampscott. A town which has 3,462 SFHs.
And wait, there is more. (more…)
How did North Shore Home Prices Perform in the last Decade?
The decade from 2010-2019 saw a remarkably consistent record of Single Family Home Price increases throughout the North Shore and Essex County.
For the purposes of comparison I have converted all prices to a base of 100 for 2009.
The first chart shows the performance of Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Beverly and Essex County as a whole. If you look at the numbers for 2019 you can see how consistent the performance was, with a 50% increase over the decade.
(more…)
How is Swampscott’s 2020 Property Tax rate calculated?
Swampscott’ residential tax rate will drop from $15.20 in Fiscal Year 2019 to $14.30 in FY 2020 (and down from a high of $18.84 in FY 2013). The FY 2020 rate will be the lowest since 2008.
Commercial and industrial property is surcharged at 170%, as in FY 2019, resulting in a tax rate of $27.45, down from $28.83 in FY 2018 (and a high of $35.02 in FY 2013).
The average SFH tax bill has been flat in recent years, while the average commercial tax bill has increased:
Were a single tax rate to be enacted – meaning that residential and commercial property were taxed at the same rate – that rate would be $15.10 for FY 2020. The average SFH and condo tax bills would increase by 5.6% while the average commercial bill would drop 41.2%.
How is the rate calculated?
The method of calculating the tax rate is quite simple: take the $ amount of the previous year’s tax levy, add 2.5% for Proposition 2 1/2, and also add any new growth (such as new construction or a condo conversion). This figure is the new maximum tax levy. To this figure is added debt service – the Principal and Interest payable on the town’s debt.
Note that in recent years, Swampscott has not assessed the maximum allowed under this formula, a decision that has reduced the tax bill for residents. The average tax bill will decline by $23 in FY 2020, a third consecutive year of decline.
Here are the numbers for FY 2018, 2018 and 2020, remembering that the FY runs from July to June.
The Tax Levy calculation
The maximum $ amount that can be raised by the property tax will increase year by year. That is because of the formula: last year’s number plus 2.5% (Prop 2 1/2) plus new growth. In the table above you can see how the FY 2019 maximum tax levy of $50,034,670 becomes the base for FY 2020. Add $1,250,867 for Prop 2 1/2 and new growth of $425,000 to get the new figure of $51,710,537.
To this number is added the debt service – Principal and Interest on the town’s debt, much as homeowners pay P&I on their mortgage. Note that the actual tax levy was less than the maximum allowed by just over $2 million in FY 2018, by $3.4 million in FY 2019 and by $4.4 million in FY 2020. In other words, the amount to be raised through taxes was reduced by these amounts each year.
The Tax Rate
The actual tax rate depends upon the total Assessed Value of all property: residential, and commercial, industrial and personal (CIP). The tax rate is calculated by dividing the total dollar amount to be raised from each class by the Assessed Value of each class. Thus, the headline tax rate will also fluctuate depending upon the direction of Assessed Values.
In simplistic terms, if we assume that the $ amount to be raised increases by a little more than 2 1/2% each year, then if the average Assessed Value also increases by a little more than 2 1/2% the tax rate will be unchanged. If the increase in Assessed Values is less than 2 1/2%, then the tax rate will rise. And if the increase in Assessed Values is more than 2 1/2% then the tax rate will fall. In recent years Assessed Values have been increasing significantly more than 2 1/2% allowing for the tax rate to decline sharply.
Looking at the Swampscott residential tax rate, in FY 2019 it was $15.20, achieved by dividing $42.6 million raised from residential homeowners by the residential AV of $2.8 billion. In FY 2020 the amount to be raised from residential taxpayers is set to increase slightly to $42.9 million, but because the total residential AV increased by 7.2% to $3.0 billion, the headline tax rate has dropped sharply to just $14.30, the lowest figure since 2009.
Comment
The residential real estate market in Swampscott was stable in 2019 (and 2019 prices will be the basis for the FY 20201 tax rate), with the median price of Single Family Homes sold rising less than 1%, while the median price of the condos sold declined 2.5%. Sales in any year represent only a small percentage of the total stock so it does not follow that assessed values calculated by the town will mirror these movements.
As to the tax rate for FY 2021, that depends on a number of factors: the amount of debt service, how much of the maximum tax levy is assessed, and the shift to the CIP class being three of them. Absent some change in methodology, however, it does not seem likely that the residential tax rate will see a further decline in FY 2021.
From a residential real estate perspective, the substantial decline in the tax rate in recent years and the stability in tax bills are both very welcome news and are clearly encouraging more people to decide both to live and work in Swampscott.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Recent Comments